this post was submitted on 09 Sep 2024
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[–] [email protected] 181 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Abolish the Electoral Collage.

[–] [email protected] 89 points 1 month ago (6 children)

That ain’t gonna happen.

That said, we can make it irrelevant with The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It’s 77% the way there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Or Electoral College even.

I would like to see what an Electoral Collage looks like.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 month ago (1 children)

You don't have one in your Democracy Scrapbook?

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago (1 children)

This is what we should've spent every waking moment doing since 2016. Why do we distract so easily...

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago
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[–] [email protected] 179 points 1 month ago

Just a reminder to not be complacent.

[–] [email protected] 110 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Here's hoping Trump pulls a Biden tomorrow.

[–] [email protected] 134 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Or a James Earl Jones. I'm not picky.

[–] [email protected] 77 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Oh god, this is how I find out!!!!!

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 month ago

For once, it might actually be too soon.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago

Too Soon! (I just read about JEJ)

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Sad about JEJ. But maybe a rule of 3s that takes out Trump wouldn't be the worst outcome.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago

I’m almost certain JEJ would be happy to take the bastard out with him

[–] [email protected] 53 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

The problem was that Biden was actually trying to say something complicated and he got tripped up. Trump has always spoken at a kindergarten level because he knows he has nothing to say.

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[–] [email protected] 68 points 1 month ago (26 children)

Who is this guy and how serious should we take this information? This is by far the highest number I've seen for Trump so far.

[–] [email protected] 83 points 1 month ago (1 children)

He's quite a well known pollster. Up until recently he was responsible for Five Thirty Eight, but it got sold and he left.

He got the 2016 election wrong (71 Hilary, 28 trump) He got the 2020 election right (89 Biden, 10 Trump)

Right and wrong are the incorrect terms here, but you get what I mean.

[–] [email protected] 67 points 1 month ago (40 children)

He didn’t get it wrong. He said the Clinton Trump election was a tight horse race, and Trump had one side of a four sided die.

The state by state data wasn’t far off.

Problem is, people don’t understand statistics.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 1 month ago (3 children)

He works for Peter Theil now, so I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt.

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[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the electoral college in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point.

He's just a guy analizing the polls. The source is Fox News. He mentions in the article that tomorrow's debate could make that poll not matter.

Should you trust Nate or polls? They're fun but... Who is answering these polls? Who wants to answer them before even October?

So yeah take it seriously that a poll found that a lot of support for Trump exists. But it's just a moment of time for whoever they polled. Tomorrow's response will be a much better indication of any momentum.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago (2 children)
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[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago (3 children)

It just seems strange because I don't think that many people are on the fence. Perhaps I'm crazy, but I feel most people know exactly who they're voting for already. Makes me wonder how valid this cross-section was that was used as the sample set. If it accurately represents the US, including undecided voters, then... 😮

[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 month ago

but I feel most people know exactly who they’re voting for already

The cross-section of people you know are more politically off the fence than the entire nation. Those that aren't online at all are also more undecided and less likely to interact with you.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago (5 children)

I listen to those news things that interview people on the street and I'm amazed at how many are uninformed and can go either way.

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

It's a chance of winning, not a poll, so 64% is high but not insane. Silver is serious and it's a decent model. Knowing the model there's a pretty good chance this is a high point for Trump but it's not like he's pulling this out of nowhere, he has had similar models every election cycle since like 2008.

If it's overstaying Trump it's because his model is interpreting the data incorrectly because of the weirdness of this election cycle. I personally think that is likely the case here.

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[–] [email protected] 60 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Ignore headlines

JUST VOTE

[–] [email protected] 52 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

~~His older model at~~ 538 has things tighter with the coin toss slightly weighted toward Harris.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-harris-2024-election-map/

Whether it’s 55/45 or 65/35, we’re still basically talking about the same thing. This race is neck and neck, and whoever gets the turnout edge will win. We’re talking about fractions of percents that are at play, which is why these odd are a coin toss.

Edit: it looks like 538’s model is new, and Silver doesn’t like it or the guy behind it.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election

[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Different model, same website. Silver got to keep his model and took it elsewhere after departing from 538.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago

TIL. I thought they forked it. I didn’t realize 538’s was all new.

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[–] [email protected] 43 points 1 month ago (1 children)

to be fair, nate silver is an idiot funded by peter thiel

[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 month ago (2 children)

He's not an idiot. He is funded by Thiel. He has been politically captured by authoritarian capitalism, so I'd be wary of any models he produced that aren't independently audited for bias.

I think polls are useful, and the monte carlo simulation approach for turning them into a electorial vote probability is good, but there "too much" magic sauce left over for me to trust the outputs from Silver or 538.

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 month ago

I hate my country

[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Important to note, these forecasts are absolutely subject to change. This is not Nostradamus. It is merely reading the polls and factors as they stand. If Harris obliterates Trump tomorrow then this flips. If everyone donates enough money this week and the DNC gets more ground network for their get out the vote efforts, then this flips

All the model guys are very clear about this.

What's driving this current Trump run in the models is the lack of a convention bump for Harris. Models automatically tune a candidate's chances down by about 10 percent after their convention because it's usually a bit of a honeymoon period. It's been pointed out though that she may have had her honeymoon period after taking over from Biden. In which case the odds are more like 46/54.

The takeaway from this is that this election is incredibly close right now. Even at 36/64 it is very close. Both candidates need to run near perfect campaigns to have a chance of winning.

[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 month ago (4 children)

What the fuck? How can this "race" even be close? How brain-dead emotional are the voters? There are two candidates, you choose the person who's ideals and directions you believe in? How is the election process surprisingly similar to an ADHD kindegarten with a nominated side whose campaign is metaphorical shit slinging??

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Nate silver also predicted Hillary would win against Trump.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago (2 children)

I suspect Harris got her "convention bounce" (as defined by the model) right when she became the nominee, this made the model think she was overperforming pre-convention and now the bounce is fading "early" when the model thinks she should still have it so it seems like she's underperformed.

If this is the theory, knowing how close the swing states are and thus how swingy it can be, most likely this number goes back to maybe 55/45 Trump.

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