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192

If United States invaded Greenland, would the other NATO countries be obliged to defend it? (lemmy.ca)

submitted 3 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 143 points 3 weeks ago (6 children)

Theoretically yes. This is an issue that has been considered before, though admittedly not with regards to fucking Greenland. Turkiye and Greece have long been enemies as well as members of NATO, and it's been considered that the invocation of Article 5 by the aggressed-upon party against the aggressing party in case of a serious war would, theoretically, be binding on the other members of NATO.

In practice, NATO is a gentleman's agreement with no means of enforcement. Everything comes down to political will - NATO is just an organizational structure to facilitate a response. It cannot replace the will (or lack thereof) of national governments.

[–] [email protected] 52 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Additionally, it's helpful to know the specific language used in Article 5:

Article 5

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.” (emphasis added)

Article 5 doesn't actually oblige NATO members to defend anything by force, it obliges NATO members to decide what actions are "deemed necessary" and then to undertake those actions. If a NATO member gets invaded, everyone could -- in theory -- write a sternly worded letter and call it a day (though I doubt that would be the actual response). As you/others have more or less said, the actual action chosen would largely be the result of political will.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Article 5 doesn't actually oblige NATO members

I do not share your interpretation (although I know that it has been the popular one recently).

I read it like this:

The obligation is out of any question: they "will" assist.
The goal of all measures is defined: "restore [...] peace and security".
The choice of measures isn't totally free. It must fit to that goal.

So, yes they can decide whether or not no use force, but they cannot follow random political agendas there.

And not fold paper airplanes instead of real ones :)

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Ah, but it doesn't say anything about an unarmed attack!

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Please don't give the US any ideas ;_;

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 weeks ago

I just think a giant swarm of rednecks spilling over the border trying to punch anything they can is a funny mental image.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

To your point, I think the political will to defend Greenland will definitely be there from the overwhelming majority of other NATO states.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Will the political will to start an actual shooting war with the US be there?

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

I don't think there's a practical ability. The European powers can't project power outside their boarders without the US helping. Especially with an overseas nation like Greenland.

England and France have a few carriers, but that's about it. Landing troops would be highly vulnerable to US air superiority. US carriers are larger and more numerous than anything Europe can put up. Based on the local geography, those carriers can stay safe from drone range (a benefit Russia does not have on the Black Sea).

But that also assumes the US military is unified to follow orders into an illegal war, and that may not be the case.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 weeks ago

But that also assumes the US military is unified to follow orders into an illegal war, and that may not be the case.

It's depressing that it's almost come to that small hope, that our military isn't as stupid as those giving the orders to them.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

I'm not versed in modern military strategy, but I've heard others say that the U.S. carrier fleet has been a dominant force because the U.S. has only taken on adversaries that didn't have submarines, and anti-torpedo systems aren't foolproof. Also, it seems to me that they're for force projection, and not so great for defensive action, to since there are only 11 of them. That is, the U.S. has a lot of assets that enemies could strike while the carrier groups are elsewhere.

I guess I'm not convinced that the carriers would be decisive in a conflict with a modern military, instead of the usual U.S. MO of picking on the weak.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 weeks ago

How weak is weak? Prior to the first Gulf War, Iraq had the fourth largest military in the world. That was as much of a curbstomp as you'll ever see in military history.

There's some theories out there about just how vulnerable modern carriers are to modern subs. One thing detractors bring up is a Chinese sub popping up in US Navy maneuvers completely undetected in 2007. However, active sonar methods are usually turned off outside of wartime, so it's not as simple as that.

One theory is that subs are at an inherent disadvantage in a technological arms race. Let's say a nation produces a sonar that can pick up any sub currently built. Likely, they'll be able to fit that sonar onto all their existing ships. Conversely, if you wanted to protect your own subs against that new sonar method, you will likely have to rebuild all your subs. Now, even nuclear subs are cheaper to produce than supercarriers, but this still isn't a favorable technological position in the long run.

Drones and hypersonic missiles are a bigger threat, IMO. More so drones. Hypersonic missiles have some disadvantages of maneuverability that make them a poor choice for a moving target. Drones are limited in range, though, so the US Navy could just keep the carriers away from shore.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

But that also assumes the US military is unified to follow orders into an illegal war, and that may not be the case.

Curious about why it would be an illegal war. Unjust, immoral, unprovoked, and unnecessary are not actually what makes a war illegal.

The invasion of Iraq was entirely based on false pretenses and the military was perfectly unified. Compared to that, an open war of conquest is pretty reasonable.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

It's illegal by international law--UN charter and the ICC both have sections against invading other country's territory. International law is only as good as anyone is willing to enforce it, which in the case of Iraq, wasn't very much.

Why would Greenland be different? Iraq was supported by a paper thin excuse of WMDs, and the history of antagonism. The Trump Administration hasn't done the legwork to even setup a paper thin excuse beyond "they have resources we want", and there's no particular history of Greenland invading its own neighbors or even threatening them. In fact, it's been an important strategic location for the US Navy's control of the North Atlantic since WWII. Trump hasn't bothered with even the slightest attempt at this because he's an idiot.

Does that mean the military will refuse the order? I really have no idea. It's not something anybody should count on. More likely, you'll have different units making different decisions. Some outright refusing, others slow walking their orders while appearing to obey, and others eager to do it. However, it's possible that the military will refuse en masse.

I think the burgeoning protest movements in the US should also be prepared to take direct action against the military. Things like linking hands to block the gates to weapons factories. And to the naysayers of "what are these protests even accomplishing?", it's to prepare a mass movement that is capable of doing this sort of thing.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago

I have zero belief that any units will ignore or slow walk any orders. There's just no history of that happening in recent US military existence to expect it to happen now. Vietnam saw a handful of cases where people likely killed their commanders, but it very plainly didn't impact the course of the war.

The UN will never determine that the US is engaged in an illegal war. The security council needs to vote on that, and the US gets to veto. The ICC doesn't apply to the US because we never ratified the agreement. It's just someone elses laws.

Direct action against the military is more likely to have an effect, but linking arms is not going to be effective. Impeding military production is just going to get you beaten and arrested, at best.
Specifically interfering with military operations is particularly illegal and carries penalties way worse than the usual you get for messing with other businesses.
If you're going that far, at least do something effective rather than slowing down a truck for a few hours.
Look to the WW1 protests, and what was effective there and what happened.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Administration hasn’t done the legwork to even setup a paper thin excuse beyond “they have resources we want”

The paper thin excuse is "national security" that Europe may get uppity in next few years and US needs full control of Greenland territory in order to bomb them back to Iraq level.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

France alone could roll up a nuclear submarine wherever, though. It would be a weird war but I don't actually know how unequal it would be.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

The US has more supercarriers than France has nuclear attack submarines. That's not even counting US "amphibious assault ships", which would be carriers in anybody else's navy. It's pretty unequal.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

Yes, but what would they go and do with them? I'm not super sure they could use much of that stuff up in Greenland when things are iced over, and then there's the question of how survivable they would be vs. technologically sophisticated Europe. What does holding Greenland even mean to them? What kind of losses are they willing to take elsewhere? What about MAD?

I mentioned the submarine thing because you made it sound like they'd be stuck on their own continent, and that's an obvious counterexample. There's like a million things at play.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

Carriers would provide air superiority to prevent any reinforcements from landing. That's all. Trump is willing to push a war of attrition on this one, because again, he's an idiot.

If a nuclear sub did manage to sink a US supercarrier, Trump would likely try to galvanize support in a "Remember the Maine!" fashion. I doubt it would shift actual support much at all. Quite the opposite; without doing the legwork for a paper thin excuse ahead of time and building a media frenzy the way the Bush II admin did, it only highlights how dumb and pointless the whole thing is, and that he's putting American service members at risk for no gain whatsoever.

Oh, and that nuclear sub would be hunted down and sunk in response. The EU doesn't have the forces to win a war of attrition.

The only way I see this working out for the EU is if there's a major purge of the US military beforehand. That would ensure loyalty to Trump, but it would toss competence into a woodchipper. Edit: see the Finish Winter War for how well purges work out. And the Finns technically still lost that one.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

If it goes long enough for new production to matter, the EU is actually better equipped for a war of attrition, being bigger and having some kind of unity. Would it actually be a drawn-out war of attrition, or something else? Hard to say, because like you've pointed out the whole thing is so dumb.

Again, carriers aren't the only variable in play, even if they are very good at creating a zone of air superiority. Greenland isn't the only theater here, it's not a single point you can sit on top of, and it's not even mostly inhabited. I'll try not to repeat myself about the other factors I've mentioned.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Even in a scenario where the EU massively increases production of tanks and guns and drones, they still have to get those things into the theater of operations. One thing the US military is really, really good at is logistics. The EU up until now has little modern experience at it, because the US did it all for them.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago

That's true, although I'm skeptical they couldn't overcome it. There's no shortage of educational overlap, or of big European institutions.

Thinking about this a bit, if the US rolls some kind of icebreaker convoy up there to occupy Nuuk, they could respond by seizing all the US bases in Europe and taking anyone they catch as a prisoner. That seems like an exchange in the EU's favour; Greenland's just not a very major place. There's arguments for everything from non-military retaliation only to nuking New York, though.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 weeks ago

It's Greenland. Just principle isn't going to move anybody. Maybe not even Denmark. There's other treaties, though.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 weeks ago

Even during the recent occupation of Ukraine and the threat upon neighboring countries that are in NATO there was discussion about what-ifs, and how much gray area there is in such events. The core idea of NATO was about deterrence, much like the MAD of nuclear weapon buildup. If someone crosses that line, something has to happen otherwise the whole agreement is called out as meaningless. Article 5 leaves what actions need to happen open ended though, so assistance can be something as simple as persuading the attacker to leave via strong words. Which will absolutely be the first thing tried, as no one wants to escalate to the next level. Well, except the idiots who are attacking.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 weeks ago

Yeah. The invocation of Article 5 for Afghanistan showed a mixed response from the various NATO nations in what support they would provide.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

And since it's basically the US and everyone else in equal share, NATO is just dead and irrelevant if they're the ones breaking it.

The EU, on the other hand, would probably be in like a dirty shirt, having a defence agreement aspect. Maybe Canada too, just because we'd know we're next.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago

In practice, it would be the end of NATO.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 3 weeks ago

Side note: If this administration does invade, just accept the invite to the group chat our drunken Secretary of Defense sends you.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Article 5 doesn't oblige members to take any particular action. It only says that an attack on one is an attack on all, and leaves it to each member to decide what actions, if any, they will take in response.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

It says each member will assist the attacked party/parties, as it deems necessary.

My interpretation of the article is that assistance is mandatory. What type of assistance is up to the member to decide

https://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/topics_110496.htm?selectedLocale=en

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Prayers and likes is assistance right?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago

Thou shall not, not, probably assist. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[–] [email protected] 24 points 3 weeks ago

Probably? I don't think anyone knows for sure. It's not like NATO countries have invaded each other before.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 3 weeks ago

USA itself would violate it's own membership. With such an act it became the enemy of the NATO.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Obligation or not, it would set a frightening precedent of they didn't.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 weeks ago

Yeah, it's a no win. Either NATO becomes ineffective because it won't honour it's agreement or WW3 starts.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 weeks ago

Whether or not they have to defend, if they don't, Greece and Erdogan will go to war.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (4 children)

It's not an easy say since Greenland is not a nato member, however it's an autonomous state of Denmark, which is.

Anyone's guess, really.

Edit: just as an addition I want to clarify I am trying to help answer the question. I wish peace for the world and especially Greenland.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 3 weeks ago (5 children)

Greenland is part of NATO just the same way that all other Danish territories are.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Greenland is not a nato member

That's like saying your right arm isn't a human.

Greenland is simply a part of Denmark, so it is a NATO member.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 weeks ago

But Denmark is deemed legally to protect its autonomy which is a nato country. It's a strange case...

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Article 5 is only an obligation to have a meeting if someone calls for a meeting. It is not as strong as propagandized.

Greece and Turkey often have clashes and it is never a NATO issue.

CIA pig vermin NATO chief, Rutte, said it would not be a NATO matter.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

I've never seen my former prime-minister been referenced as that :') - most certainly not my political colour, but why CIA pig vermin? He is most certainly a competent manager of the status quo, but as a leader spineless and without a vision (for a better world)

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Check the article 5 requirement. I don't see any "unless another NATO country" exceptions.

Probably moot as all the US has to do is increase presence and wait for an "or else" moment, so that they can rely with "or else what?"

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago

Kind of like Czechoslovakia in WW2.

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