this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2025
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[–] [email protected] 37 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Hope it'll stay closer to ARD's exit poll, with FDP and BSW both under 5%. Grand coalition is the best we can reasonably get. It'll be way more stable than any 3-party coalition and I think we really need a stable government capable of getting shit done these next few years.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Problem is, that CDU, SPD will likely be the coalition, where the SPD has no Backbone while the CSU can do whatever the fuck they want (which is paving the way for AfD)

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Would it not be possible for a 3-party coalition to be perfectly stable? We've had many of those in the Netherlands that went just fine, I believe. Though I guess given the lack of a threshold, those parties might differ less than they do in Germany?

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus SΓΆder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 days ago (12 children)

I kinda wondered about BSW though. They are left, they are anti-immigration and they are capable of pulling votes from AfD and Die Linke - the two parties that compete most with CDU/CSU and SPD, respectively.

So they could be quite a strategic partner.

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[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 week ago (3 children)

About what was expected.

Good news for Die Linke, bad news for the Greens, rest looks pretty similar to polling over the past week.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 week ago

The Greens lost the least votes from all the members of the last coalition. SPD and FDP have huge losses.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 1 week ago

Not necessarily so bad for the Greens. They are the only party of the current government that has not lost a massive amount of votes. They have more or less maintained their position, so not good, but not bad either.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

The Greens did very well given the amount of shit thrown at them. SPD and FDP did worse

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I’m talking about compared to the polling averages.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Even there I don't see them doing particularly bad. Also the ARD Exit Polls differ a bit from the ones from ZDF

The Graphic shows all polls averaged of the last 90 days

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Note, currently BSW and FDP are both below 5 percent which means they won't get into the Bundestag which drastically changes the number of seats the other parties get. As long as they don't go over 5 % a coalition between the Union and SPD is possible.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (1 children)

That's the goal, isnt it? Otherwise it will become another turmoil coalition

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (2 children)

I had some hope for a Union + Greens coalition but it doesn't look like that will be possible.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Depending on which statistician you are asking they also might have just enough to get in

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I'm sorry my dear Europeans πŸ™ˆπŸ˜₯

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (2 children)

It's not that bad. There is a "firewall" around the AfD, so a coalition with the CDU isn't possible.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 week ago

Dude, that "firewall" was set ablaze weeks ago by the CDU...

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (1 children)

No worries ppl. It can only get worse!

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