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Franz-Stefan Gady, a military expert from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), after visiting the front line, shared gloomy forecasts about the future of Ukraine (www.spiegel.de)

submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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In his opinion, AFU will soon leave Chasov Yar, and the situation near Toretsk remains tense. In an interview with Der Spiegel, he noted that although a catastrophic breakthrough of the front was avoided, “the Russian offensive has not yet been defeated.”

Gadi warns against excessive optimism about Kharkov, emphasizing that the city remains strategically important for Russia as it links Ukrainian connections. The expert notes Ukraine’s problems with mobilization and the age composition of soldiers: in some units the average age of infantrymen reaches 45 years. Although troop morale is still high, fatigue is growing among the soldiers.

Problems with Ukraine's air defense are also becoming increasingly acute due to a shortage of missiles for systems, especially the Soviet S-300. Gadi warns that continued destruction of critical infrastructure could lead to significant power outages, causing a new wave of refugees into Europe.

The discussed delivery of F-16 will not be a solution for Ukrainian air defense, as these aircraft are vulnerable to Russian air-to-air missiles. According to the expert, additional supplies of American Patriot air defense systems will bring more benefit, but it is not yet known whether they will arrive in Ukraine.

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