this post was submitted on 27 Apr 2025
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I may as well get to bed, but I wish I would know before if the NDP will have enough seats to prop up an LPC minority. I'd hate to see the LPC+NDP be one or two seats short, leaving the CPC/BQ with enough votes to stymie everything. Right now it's sitting at 170 combined, need 172 or more to make it work.
Why the assumption that BQ can't be worked with?
Because every election people from outside Quebec talk about the BQ as if it was a right wing party that would rather work with the cons when all it does is vote based on Quebec's interests. The BQ will keep the Liberals in power as long as the Liberals play ball and don't try to centralize things that aren't under federal jurisdiction.
That last bit might be what leads to the misunderstanding, the cons tend to respect the division of powers more than the Liberals, but I'm pretty sure that PP would have been different on that front anyway.
Um... what?? BQ and NDP are our only viable left wing parties! If anything the BQ have historically pushed the nation's politics leftward when they have leverage to do so. This is not the first time we have counted on them to look out for us all, and they have taken on that role graciously in the past.
I could be missing a variable in this equation but it feels kind of anti-Quebec (phrased as such not to use a more serious and loaded term) that people are overlooking the BQ as the balance of power.
And yet, every election where it's a minority you see people mention that the BQ will certainly form an alliance with the cons... Which makes no sense whatsoever.
LPC+NDP could be 171 and be ok on current numbers, with the 1 GRN projected reaching a majority without needing BQ. Still...they're 1 short of that.
You assume Carney would prefer working with the NDP over the BQ? I wouldn't be surprised if he preferred the BQ if only to strike a congenial tone and try to garner more support there so next time his majority is not in doubt
I'm not Canadian. Just an amateur psephologist who loves talking the theory of politics. I don't have my own sense of which party they'd rather work with.
I based that assumption on what other comments seemed to be making. Which was, yes, that Liberals would choose NDP over BQ.
We've still got those advance polls keeping things in flux, though. A Liberal majority hasn't even been ruled out.
Have there been estimates of how many advance polls there have been, as a percentage of estimated overall turnout?
I'm going to bed pretty quick, but CBC just said that it's about a 2,000 voter jump for the left when that advanced poll comes in, based on the ridings that are done. So, about 1.6% in a 125,000 person riding, or actually more because voting isn't mandatory.
As a percentage of turnout, not off the top of my head. It was 7.2 million advance voters in a nation of 41.7 million, though. So, a lot.
1 short may as well be 2 short, because the house will elect a liberal speaker and reduce the vote number one more. But, whatever will happen is set in stone, waiting to be counted. I don't know why I engage with this as if its a story unfolding, like I can influence it by watching.
Oh, is that not built-in to the 172 requirement? In Australia we always talk about a requirement of 76 seats to win an election, because 75 after the speaker is selected is able to have control of Parliament. I assumed the CBC and others were doing the same here.
edit: actually, just ran the numbers. 343 seats total, minus one for speaker, halved is 171. Assuming Canadian speakers follow Speaker Denison's Rule, exactly half isn't enough, so you need 172. So it looks like it is built in.
Good spot check, thanks