this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2025
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Sanctions do work, if they are pushed fast and strong. The slow ramping up of sanctions has allowed Russia to find ways to circumvent or in the case of oil and gas even profit from the price increasing.
However the EU finally targeting the shadow fleet can be a major interruption for Russian Oil trade. They cannot simply pump the oil from the west to the east. They dont have the pipelines and these take years to build
Thing is the sanctions have been slow and did allow time for Putin to shift who he supplies energy to with the shadow fleet. I think adding more sanctions after years of war is not going to amount to much. Especially when the war may stop soon (cause Trump knows how to make the best deals /s). This would give Putin fiscal space to build those pipelines to China and otherwise invest more in his fleet of tankers.
Ultimately, he will find buyers for his energy from countries who don't care about the war and don't care about Europe's sanctions (China, India...). Maybe I'll be wrong and these new sanction will work but I'm sure India and China can figure out how to get the energy they need from Russia