Europe

Archived

Russia uses nuclear threats to deter Western countries from supporting Ukraine and plans to revive the Soviet "nuclear winter" campaign later this year, Estonia says

"In our assessment, Russia is highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine, but observing how the fear factor has restrained the West thus far, Russia is exploiting it to the fullest. The war in Ukraine could have potentially been ended some time ago had the West seen through Russia's bluff," writes [Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service] EFIS Director General Kaupo Rosin in the introduction of a new report.

"As its resources for escalation dwindle, leading to frustration behind closed doors among the siloviki, Moscow will persist in exploiting nuclear fear. While the Kremlin's rhetoric on nuclear weapons is forceful, its actions do not mirror these ominous threats," Rosin noted.

As a example of Russia's intimidation, the report highlighted how Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a special regime for nuclear forces at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, this did not translate into concrete action.

...

"Operational patterns and unit tasks remained unchanged, rendering the special regime meaningless. Throughout the war, Russia has announced multiple "red lines", such as Ukraine striking Crimea or receiving Western military aid like tanks, F-16 fighter jets, HIMARS or ATACMS. None of these scenarios has resulted in nuclear escalation," the report states.

The EFIS says Russia aims to influence Western policymakers by lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use in its nuclear doctrine and continuing its intimidation tactics. These include seeking to deter support for Ukraine and prevent NATO from strengthening its defense capabilities near Russian borders.

...

Russia also plans to launch a campaign in 2025 to instill fear in the Western about the possibility of a nuclear winter, similar to the USSR's actions in the 1980s.

"This effort is based on a scientific concept, widely discussed in the 1980s, which suggested that the use of nuclear weapons would trigger an artificial cooling of Earth's climate, with a drastic drop in temperatures leading to widespread famine and other catastrophic consequences. While once a popular scientific theory, the nuclear winter hypothesis was later heavily criticised for being based on flawed data, drawing arbitrary conclusions and suffering from ambiguity. It has since been revealed that the debate was sparked by a disinformation campaign orchestrated by the Soviet KGB to deter the US from deploying Pershing II missiles in Europe," the EFIS explained.

...