Ask Lemmy

A couple points: Hamas doesn't just want back the land that was stolen during the Nakba. They consider all the land including state land and even privately purchased land by Jews from before the war to be Arab land. They reject wholesale any Jewish self determination in the land as illegitimate. This is why Israel is refusing to sign a deal that leaves them in power, because that just kicks the can down the road for a bit.

Hamas even put a plan together of what to do if they win and it boiled down to: murdering all the Zionists, enslaving key talent to prevent total economic collapse, and then throw the rest out. Since they are a totalitarian fascist regime, I don't see how they can ever be negotiated with in good faith. I'm not aware of a single fascist regime that peacefully democratized or even stopped committing violence.

I don't agree that Netanyahu is genocidal. His general strategy seems to be crushing opposition through tactical maneuvering both internal and external. I also don't expect him to be very politically relevant once his fragile coalition falls apart or regularly scheduled elections happen in 2026. According to John Spencer and other urban warfare experts the civilian casualties are impressively low considering the environment and Hamas's tactics. That's not to be dismissive as all civilian casualties are tragic and should be avoided as much as possible. Also about 20% of Israeli citizens are Palestinian.

I would love to see a reasonable 2 state solution that everyone hates, but can live with. I don't think that this Israeli government coalition would be willing to accept one, but I have pretty good hopes for future ones. My main concern is on the Palestinian side, there doesn't seem to be anyone that would both be able to afford to make a deal and be able to enforce it. The closest chance there was historically would probably have been the Camp David Summit. Currently Abbas and the PA are seen as too weak and corrupt IMO for the general Palestinian population to support it even if they did accept.

I don't see how any US president would be able to unilaterally force a 2 state solution. The US does provide a lot of support, but I don't see how leveraging that would be enough to override Israeli security concerns. The unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 is what enabled Hamas to take over and declare war on Israel leading eventually to the current situation. Allowing that kind of buildup in the West Bank would be far more dangerous as is is much closer to major population centers and has a much larger boarder. Israel didn't have major US support until the Yom Kippur war.

On top of that, there is the whole IRGC issue. They don't want any solution. They're happy to arm proxy groups that are willing to support their agenda. That makes any peaceful Palestinian government that's trying to suppress internal terrorist groups have even more to deal with and it would probably end up in a Syrian or Yemen civil war situation which would be way worse for everyone, especially the Palestinians.