this post was submitted on 11 May 2024
93 points (100.0% liked)

Science Memes

11148 readers
4109 users here now

Welcome to c/science_memes @ Mander.xyz!

A place for majestic STEMLORD peacocking, as well as memes about the realities of working in a lab.

Rules

  1. Don't throw mud. Behave like an intellectual and remember the human.
  2. Keep it rooted (on topic).
  3. No spam.
  4. Infographics welcome, get schooled.

This is a science community. We use the Dawkins definition of meme.

Research Committee

Other Mander Communities

Science and Research

Biology and Life Sciences

Physical Sciences

Humanities and Social Sciences

Practical and Applied Sciences

Memes

Miscellaneous

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
93
Never Forget (mander.xyz)
submitted 6 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
85 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] [email protected] 13 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (4 children)

Look, the kid was a hero, but this is also patently false.

He was not sentenced to 35 years. The trial hadn't started. 35 years was the maximum possible sentence. He was given a plea deal for 6 months that he rejected.

We don't need to spin lies to make his story more tragic than it already is.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (2 children)

35 years max, plea for 1/2 that was rejected. He was going to get the book thrown at him to make an example. 5 years minimum but I wouldn't doubt 10-20.

The rapist traitor that headed a insurrection on Jan 6 2021 has never spent a day in jail and is still the frontrunner for president to be legally elected in 2024.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

plea for 1/2 that was rejected

The rejected plea was for 6 months.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago (1 children)

6 months is 1/2 of a year.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago

While that is true.

“1/2 that” would imply 1/2 of 35 years or 17.5 years.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago (1 children)

still the frontrunner for president to be legally elected in 2024.

The front runner? Really?

I'm not being sarcastic. Im genuinely interested, but can't be arsed to start going through polls because it'd mean going through the biases of the pollers.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Really it’s too close to call but he does appear to have a slight edge if you had to pick a favorite.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago (1 children)

it's not really.that close.whem you compare it to 2016/2020

Trump underpolls significantly,.by 5-8%, and did for both 2016 and 2020.

Bidens hasn't led trump in polling in 500 days

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago (1 children)

You're wrong about a lot and you're presenting your opinions as fact. Trump doesn't underpoll by that amount now.

There was a phenomenon in 2016 where people were reluctant to tell pollsters they were voting for him, because they were embarrassed. Now Trump supporters are the loud minority of voters. And Biden is the boring safe choice. Biden voters are less likely to stay on the phone and answer questions.

Also, national polls mean very little. You have to actually look at the swing state polls to find out who's winning. And there's not much data this far from the election.

Finally, we can tell there's something wrong with current polling just because "Mr. Brainworms" RFK Jr polls around 10% right now. No one is going to vote for him, and definitely not 10% of the population. People are just fucking with the pollsters right now. Do you know anyone seriously considering voting for RFK Jr?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (1 children)

You can project whatever narrative you want into the data but what is I'm saying is fundamentally the case.

Trump outperforms his polling. He did so in 2016 by a wide margin, and he did so again in 2020. You can just go look at the week prior polling. This isn't some grandiose fiction it's a statement of fact, that you seem to be ignorant to.

Your interest in a particular narrative doesn't change what is. What matters is that Biden needs around an 8% lead on Trump nationally to be secure, and has been trailing, basically the entire time.

If the election were tomorrow, and we believe the offsets observed in the two previous national elections, and we should because those were real events made from real data, then Biden would lose in a landslide today.

Because I can't stand all of your group think naivete:

I went and pulled the 2020 data. The above is the relative error in polling from polls during the months of October and November 2020, calculated against the real votes cast in 2020. Biden underperforms his polling by about 4% and Trump overperforms his polling by about 8%. You can argue with why this is the case, but you can-not pretend that this isn't the case. You should be adjusting how you see polls with this in mind. When you see Biden trailing Trump in national polling (and he has been for 400 days in a row), you should see that as a CLEAR Trump lead considering that Trump CONSISTENTLY overperforms on election day relative to his polling.

Sources: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi%3A10.7910%2FDVN%2F42MVDX

https://electionlab.mit.edu/data

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls_historical.csv

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago

You didn't answer the question:

Do you know anyone who is voting for RFK Jr? He is polling at 10% right now, so if it's real then statistically you should know someone.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 months ago

also he worked with wikileaks... i think he was named as a source posthumously...

he also wrote an open source system of servers that function exactly like wikileaks submission system (actually i think it is, given clues as to how it operates... like the manning chat logs)
dead drop is now called "open drop" and powers every major newspaper's leak submission system...

he was murdered.

not only the did it make no sense, given the 6 month plea bargain option, but he was an outspoken activist and would've at least left a note... in the form of some post online...

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago

He committed the idealist's perennial sin: He thought that because the system is bullshit, it's okay not to play ball with it.

"Hey this is a bunch of crap. I can be guilty or innocent, and the right move is always to plead guilty even if I didn't do a damn thing wrong, because if I try to fight the case they're gonna tack on a ton of new charges and they almost always win and I might go away for most of my life."

"Preach."

"I'm gonna plead not guilty because I didn't do anything wrong."

"No no no no no that is not the way to reform the system no no no that is a bad mistake"

Aaron Swartz was a fuckin hero. Read his posthumous book, it is wonderful. But the same idealism and faith that led him to the good things he did in his painfully short time here, also led him not to understand how to engage with the US federal government and keep your skin.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago (1 children)

For bulk downloading science journals he had access to.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago

for breaking and entering*

and DoS