HandwovenConsensus

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

Well, I only know how it tends to work in China, where the traditional calendar is used for cultural events such as festivals, while the Gregorian calendar is used for just about everything else, including domestic business. I assumed it's the same in most modern cultures with a different traditional calendar, but maybe I'm wrong.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Is it? I know some cultures have a traditional lunar calendar, but I didn't know there were many that didn't also use the Gregorian calendar for business.

Which cultures have the seven day week without the solar year?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Not quite the same, since in my scenario the player loses everything after a loss while in the St. Petersburg Paradox it seems they keep their winnings. But it does seem relevant in explaining that expected value isn't everything.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

I'm looking at the game as a whole. The player has a 1 in 8 chance of winning 3 rounds overall.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago

But the odds of the player managing to do so are proportionate. In theory, if 8 players each decide to go for three rounds, one of them will win, but the losings from the other 7 will pay for that player's winnings.

You're right that the house is performing a Martingale strategy. That's a good insight. That may actually be the source of the house advantage. The scenario is ideal for a Martingale strategy to work.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Well, they have to start over with a $1 bet.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

I don't know if that applies to this scenario. In this game, the player is always in the lead until they aren't, but I don't see how that works in their favor.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

You're saying that the player pays a dollar each time they decide to "double-or-nothing"? I was thinking they'd only be risking the dollar they bet to start the game.

That change in the ruleset would definitely tilt the odds in the house's favor.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Right, and as the chain continues, the probability of the player maintaining their streak becomes infinitesimal. But the potential payout scales at the same rate.

If the player goes for 3 rounds, they only have a 1/8 chance of winning... but they'll get 8 times their initial bet. So it's technically a fair game, right?

 

The idea is that if the coin flip goes in the player's favor, they win double their bet. After winning, they can either collect their winnings, or risk them all on another coin flip to have a chance at doubling them. The initial bet is fixed at, let's say $1.

Mathematically, this seems like a fair game. The expected value of each individual round is zero for both house and player.

Intuitively, though, I can't shake the notion that the player will tend to keep flipping until they lose. In theory, it isn't the wrong decision to keep flipping since the expected value of the flip doesn't change, but it feels like it is.

Any insight?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

I feel like he was working up to a punchline about haven mistaken a toy for an electric school bus, but for some reason failed to get there.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago

Yeah, I can't speak to the behind-the-scenes drama, but I agree that Pierce was at his best in Season One, where he was a little bit grandiose and a little bit of a jerk but still had moments of wisdom and humanity. I always liked the talk he gave Jeff in the boating episode.

Turning him into a total buffoon villain from season 2 onwards was a change for the worse.

 

I just kind of wonder with how casually people express these thoughts. It's a little disturbing how normalized it is to entertain such notions, given how other types of fantasies are very stigmatized.

Like when discussing char.ai, acting out sexual or romantic fantasies is something a lot of people do, but it's considered embarrassing. While people freely discuss violent roleplays without any shame.

And then there's the cliche of fantasizing about killing one's boss or coworkers.

Are these really common thoughts for mentally sound people to have?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Like the Klingon dish gagh?

 

I've never heard of these candidates, they have no party affiliation, and there's almost no information about them online that I can find.

Are those positions just for people who work closely with those departments to vote on?

 

A lot of times, when people discuss the phenomenon of employers ending work-from-home and try to make their employees come back to the office, people say that the motivation is to raise real estate prices.

I don't follow the logic at all. How would doing this benefit an employer in any way?

 

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