this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2025
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"The president single-handedly wiped out Americans' retirement savings overnight and subjected businesses to intense whiplash with his increasingly erratic and chaotic policies that continue to drive consumer and business uncertainty."

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 20 hours ago

The Kennedy's made their fortune shorting the US economy during the Great depression.

Everything Trump has done has been calculated. I'd be willing to bet my left testicle that his gambling most of his fortune on heavily leverages shorts. He's trying to create the greatest possible depression because that will make him the most amount of money.

He knows exactly when he will cut his bullshit so he will settle his short right before making the announcement. Then with all the money he essentially stole from the population he will then buy up large chunks of the economy (and so will his buddies).

Once capital is even more heavily controlled by the upper classes the only recourse left will be violent revolution. All speculation. But that's what I would be doing if I was trump trying to install a true autocracy.

[–] [email protected] 47 points 1 day ago (1 children)

All we need now is a massive man made natural disaster to strike to make it another great depression. Luckily there isn't any terrible climate related issue that's on the verge of causing a catastrophe or anything.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 day ago (1 children)

That, and good thing there isn't a new pandemic brewing in birds and livestock.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Thank god 80% of the bees we use to pollinate all our food didn't die this last month...

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)

At least we don't have a measles outbreak and an anti-vaxxer in charge

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

We should consider ourselves lucky there isn't a genocide happening in the middle east with US backing.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 day ago (3 children)

60% chance of recession, 40% chance of a depression. “The Greatest Depression”

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Tremendous, really. Like nothing ever seen before.

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[–] [email protected] 74 points 2 days ago (24 children)

Even if Trump removes every tariff a recession is almost certainly coming. Short to longer term planning, hiring, building, etc will certainly slow down and that kind of things is widespread. People lose jobs, people don't get hired, people choose not to start a business or invest money in the USA, etc.

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago

So repubs are alientating themselves from their traditional business base too. That leaves what? Nut jobs in rvs covered in trump signs?

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago

I'd love to see donvict, fElon, Lutnick, Thiel, Vance and especially Navarro forced to live in poverty for a while.

[–] [email protected] 143 points 2 days ago (10 children)

The Federal Reserve now projects -3.7% GDP growth in Q1 2025. The 2008 recession was -2.6%, and covid was -2.2, for comparison.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 5 hours ago

Lol, if it's gonna happen, can it really get underway in the next 3 weeks?

The Australian Labor party could ride its credentials from the previous recession, which we basically came out of unscathed, into another term of government. Anything to avoid the Libs (the conservatives, confusingly for everyone else outside Australia).

Might be a bit of a stretch though, since we won't be able to sell as much raw materials to China as we did back then.

Anything to keep the Libs out of power, pls.

It's crazy that people thought Trump's plans were a good idea. Or that they still do, even now.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

They predict -3.7% if yesterday was somehow the end of it, but we know it's not.

-3.7% would be a dream compared to what's actually likely.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

Q1 runs from 1/1 - 3/31. Q2 will be worse if he doesn’t repeal the tariffs.

[–] [email protected] 78 points 2 days ago (1 children)

That... Doesn't seem good if I'm being totally honest

[–] [email protected] 69 points 2 days ago

-3.7% so far.

[–] [email protected] 48 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Consider this too...Q1 ended on March 31st. They are predicting that drop before all this tariff shit got started.

Hell, Biden was president for 20 of the 90 days in that quarter.

[–] [email protected] 27 points 2 days ago

So you're saying it's Bidens fault! /s

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[–] [email protected] 42 points 2 days ago (1 children)

It's 100% they are just too scared to say that

[–] [email protected] 23 points 2 days ago (3 children)

You can't say anything is 100% with a chaotic and erratic president. There's always a chance that Trump will undo everything next week and things will stabilise for a short while. That chance might be very low, but it effectively invalidates 100% prediction.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I'm afraid you're wrong here actually. Being arbitrary and mercurial means no one will risk investing in the US, as policies may be created or undone at any moment. The only way this goes away is simply that he goes away. The risk is what is creating the certainty here.

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[–] [email protected] 114 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Not long until MAGAs call the stock market woke.

[–] [email protected] 39 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (6 children)

Alternate TRUTH market incoming

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[–] [email protected] 31 points 2 days ago (2 children)

The blood is on gop hands and any billionaires backing him

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago

And the people who voted for him. And the people that didn't vote.

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[–] [email protected] 77 points 2 days ago (7 children)

Trump is gonna try his best to make the best depression ever.

[–] [email protected] 75 points 2 days ago (5 children)

He heard "great depression" and took it as a challenge

[–] [email protected] 42 points 2 days ago

Yuge Depression. Like sinkhole levels.

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[–] [email protected] 44 points 2 days ago (15 children)

How was Thursday and Friday not a recession? I lost > 10% of my 401k in 2 days.

It took 4 years to get to where it was since I stopped contributing right after the 2020 panic. 4 years of happily let my money do what it should, BAM wiped out in 2 fucking days.

[–] [email protected] 39 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (4 children)

10% so far unfortunately.

Recessions officially require a slowdown of an economy over a longer period of time. Usually the stock market has nothing to do with it, though it can be a canary in the coal mine for it.

A recession has more to do with unemployment rate rising, negative GDP growth and consumer spending indexes falling.

Essentially it's just a fancy way of saying the economy is slowing down in every category.

The stock market is a rich person's playground in this day and age mostly.

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I’ve Lost 15% since this shitshow of president started fucking with things.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 2 days ago (5 children)

When we are almost all living in shacks with nothing left MAGA will be telling us we are better off.

[–] [email protected] 48 points 2 days ago (13 children)

"I'm so glad things are going back to the way they should be!" -my hyper-republican boomer coworker, this afternoon

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[–] [email protected] 42 points 2 days ago (5 children)

God this is bleak.

I'm not even in the US. This is a global recession.

"[Consumers] are not even going to the grocery store and paying more for vegetables because there's none available from Mexico, or going to Whole Foods, for example, and finding the big sections of fresh fruit are being shut down. They haven't really felt the full impact [yet], and they're already saying something isn't right," Bethune says.

It sounds like shit is going to get real, really quick. As in next week?

Trump isn't going to back down either - good or bad he always just doubles down. If Mexican producers stop selling to the US he's just going to go to war right?

As an aside, I had been wondering what the US gov is going to do with all that tariff revenue... but now it seems kinda clear that consumers will be buying a lot less stuff, so there will be less income tax revenue anyway.

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[–] [email protected] 33 points 2 days ago (13 children)

If they say 60% odds when it's obviously 100%, how does one go about making money on the spread?

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