this post was submitted on 08 Dec 2024
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Flight path of a plane that took off from Damascus shorty after news broke that Assad left the city towards unknown destination, which might have been Latakia on Syrian coast which is still under SAA control as of now. Terrain in place where flightradar stopped tracking that plane isn't especially suited for emergency landing

Shortly after crash Syrian Army Command informs officers about fall of the regime https://xcancel.com/Alhadath_Brk/status/1865587913817305454#m

update: it's not spoofed transponder data or controlled landing, locals reported plane crash in the area. rumors so far, but dawn will break soon in Syria and we'll know https://xcancel.com/Schizointel/status/1865593800678130081#m

clarification: there's some chance that Assad went out of Damascus before on other, private jet, so it's not sure and it's all conjecture on unproven information

update 2: there's a claim by Russian media that Assad is in Moscow, so he would have to flee on some earlier plane, but no photos as of now. Still, looked mildly credible at the time

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[–] [email protected] 85 points 2 weeks ago

this is the kind of superpower that chronic insomnia gets you

join our matrix channel for more noncredible news

[–] [email protected] 72 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

You know when NCD has actual writeups and citations shit is getting real. Getting Wagner coup vibes, what a time to be alive where we can glimpse into the sausage of geopolitics being made in real time.

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[–] [email protected] 65 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

Honestly guys, it's not the first time I got breaking world news from this community and I am disappointed, I thought this was non-credible?

[–] [email protected] 38 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Yes, but to be truly non-credible, one must first poses great knowledge and insight.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 2 weeks ago

"It takes a wise man to be truly stupid"- Sun Tzu

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 weeks ago

The funniest part is it may be days before news starts reporting he was probably on this plane. They'll want to wait for some sort of confirmation, which probably doesn't exist.

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[–] [email protected] 62 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Can we speed run the Russsian collapse as well?

It’s going to shit me if Putin falls on the 22nd Jan so the orange boofhead can claim the credit.

[–] [email protected] 33 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Would he claim credit, or announce a day off mourning?

[–] [email protected] 30 points 2 weeks ago

Probably both he usually takes both sides on every issue at some point.

At least the balkanisation and collapse of Russia will be a simple thing for such a stable genius to manage.

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[–] [email protected] 53 points 2 weeks ago
[–] [email protected] 40 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

One of the rare cases where I hear of a death and check wikipedia to still see the word "is". I wonder how long confirmation will take.

[–] [email protected] 27 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

There may be no changes on the article yet, but there's a lot of ongoing discussion at the Discussion page of the article:

[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

German Wikipedia already has past tense and a small paragraph about Assad leaving the country for an unknown location.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Is it sourced properly? Because killing people on wikipedia without sources isn't helping wikipedia's credibility.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 weeks ago

At least the current version of the article uses past tense when referring to his presidency but doesn't claim he's dead.

[–] [email protected] 33 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

I did hear it here first, you're right.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

No, I heard it first here.

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[–] [email protected] 30 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

Today is a day of victory for chins everywhere

[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Nooooooo you can't break credible news on NCD!!1!!! 😭

NCD: Haha Illusion-76 go brrrrrrr (crash)

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[–] [email protected] 23 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

yeah this also

he was done either way as damascus was handed over few hours ago

[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Yea, it's amazing how fast this can go down. Been F5ing Live UA map every few hours the last few days and almost every time there were notable changes.

This also cements Russia's loss of their only notable Mediterranean port.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

port and airbase now. and SAM site if it ends up being the cause

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 weeks ago

that would be dumbest and highest profile friendly fire ever. are we sure that Girkin wasn't exiled to Syria?

[–] [email protected] 21 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Holy fuck lol. I sorta called it.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

well it still could have been friendly fire

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 weeks ago

I didn't say that it would be insurgent fire.

Just that Weak Chin MaGee would be shot down.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

I hope to see trump flee to Russia one day.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

I hope he doesn't get the chance to abscond and is held accountable for his crimes. Not likely to happen but one can dream.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Holy shit! The Russians shot him out of the sky??

[–] [email protected] 46 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

that would be pretty stupid so it's definitely an option

we can guess that 1. assad was on that plane, and 2. it did something that looked like a bad malfunction and 3. there are rumors of plane crash in the area. maybe it was some stupid reason like mechanical malfunction, or maybe friendly fire from russian S300 at Tartus, or maybe unfriendly fire from whatever SAM HTS now has. or something else

[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 weeks ago

Yeah, Assad has killed a lot of his own people even without getting into Islamist stuff.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

The plane flew over opposition controlled territory in Homs, and then it started losing altitude very fast. I think the Russians didn't have the chance of doing anything funny this time.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 weeks ago (13 children)

I watched that live. The video from the airport a few minutes before was surreal.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 weeks ago

Link plz this is crazy

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

Good example of why you don't trust internet "journalism."

It's just a rumour until you get confirmation from the AP. People tend to think the mainstream media is hiding things, but it's usually down to them not publishing unconfirmed rumours while the internet will. And here's an example of why that is. Many of these things wind up being false. It's better to hear about what actually happened two days later than spend time forming opinions about what might have happened right now.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

It's better to hear about what actually happened two days later than spend time forming opinions about what might have happened right now

Lmao do you know where you are??? This is NCD, I have recklessly violent opinions over shit that only exists in my head.

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 week ago (1 children)

True? False? You still heard it here, first!

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 weeks ago

Curious if this is just another straw, or maybe enough to motivate Russian citizens to start dealing with all this hay.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Oh come on, its not like the rebels would have any anti aircraft systems... Other then the odd Pantsir, maybe a BUK or two. And even if they did, why would they need anything like that marching on the last stronghold of the regime? /s

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

Buk (TEL) lacks a radar. Pantsir or MANPADS lacks range (7km altitude give or take). Either they networked radar to Buk, or made these super old S75 work, or planted bomb onboard like with Prigozhin, or something else. It's also possible that F35 sneaked around and took it down with A2A missile, not that we'll ever see it

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