this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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A new climate change map shows predictions for just how devastated the future climate will be in various places around the world. The map, which is called The Future Urban Climates, allows interested users to explore how their home area’s climate might change going forward.

The data used to create the map comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and it was created by University of Maryland spatial ecologist Matthew Fitzpatrick to showcase the future of climate change up to 2080.

Of course, all of the changes showcased on the climate change map are just predictions based on current trends of extreme storms, fires, floods, droughts, heat waves, and cold snaps—all of which continue to hit us harder each year.

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Here's the source of the data, I find it way more interesting than the app.

https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

Thanks for sharing!

[–] [email protected] 22 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Florida will be like Mexico in 2080? Somehow I think Florida will be more like Atlantis, but I guess we'll see.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

We can only hope.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Sea level rise takes a lot of time. The projections I saw were somewhere around 1 m by 2100 and 10 m by 2300, depending on the amount of warming of course. I think hurricanes will be a bigger issue for them in this century.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

Those sea level rise projections are global. There will be local differences. I don't know what that means for Florida though.

Similar to how on land we'll probably see higher temps than the global average, just because the sea is able to absorb so much more energy.

Also recent studies may indicate that melt rates in the Antarctic are higher than previously thought.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

I know this is awful and I shouldnt joke, but there is something darkly funny about seeing an article about how devestated the world will be, and then seeing it says Scotland will be like Bilbao for when I retire.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

If we continue this trajectory, here are a lot of highly populated and productive urban economic centers that read:

"Future climate for this location is expected to be unlike anything currently found anywhere on Earth, so there are no climate matches for this location."

These are the most densely populated cities on earth. In the most peaceful 2080 scenario, all that you (or your descendants) would have to worry about in Scotland is that suddenly all these people would be on your doorstep, overburdening your supply chains, disrupting the job market and driving prices relentlessly upward because Scotland suddenly has very temperate weather and everybody wants to be there. Congrats, enjoy the new traffic and strained healthcare system.

In the most realistic scenario, there's endless war, death, and suffering globally as human migration on a scale we've never seen disrupts everything everywhere.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

Thank you I'm aware of that, hence why I explicitly caveated my post as being dark humour.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

I mean I kind of agree, most of the ones I tried were rather underwhelming. We've been joking for a while that Amsterdam would be the new Barcelona, but this tool gives you Bordeaux as a match which is a lovely place to be right now... Tried Edinburgh and the match was in Spain, so a much bigger differential but still I don't see how that would give any Scots such a bad feeling indeed....

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

Interesting tool. I saw a climate projection for 2050 a few years ago (wish I could find it again) that suggested that my area in Maine would be similar to the climate of Baltimore / D.C. Metro and began looking for seed distributors in that region. I figure that assisted migration and mixing genetics from our region as it exists now and the region it will approximate will possibly help to provide some semblance of resilience for the forest we manage. This tool, at thirty years later than the other, puts us as resembling western Missouri which shares many climactic features as the region I had initially targeted (a relief, such as it is) but could signal a loss of our coastal effects. I'm unsure how exactly to parse that alongside my understanding of sea level rise and the fact that Maine's waters are some of the fastest warming in the U.S.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

Wow, I’m really sad now. Like what even can I do about this? existential dread washes over

[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago (1 children)

This is meant as a prediction of how could things could be based on current trends and data, not an inevitable future we can do nothing about. There are many constructive things that can be done. I don't think leaving sarcastic comments on message boards is one of them.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Wasn’t meant to be sarcastic, my b. Climate change seriously worries me & I’d like to do as much as I can to help change that, but also, I am one person so it’s easy to spiral when taking notice of other’s actions around me 🌀

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I'm sorry for misreading your comment. Seeing un-constructive comments elsewhere probably prejudiced me. These are definitely upsetting statistics and those feelings are valid. Good news is they're only inevitable if we allow them to be so hopefully we can influence others to take action as individuals for collective change and liberation.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

No worries @ all! 😇😊 in hindsight I can see how that came off like a douchebag comment but I appreciate the constructive criticism & opportunity to starting a dialogue to be able to take action! I definitely want to learn about what I can do as an individual to help inspire change within my sphere of influence. We are all stronger together! ☮️💟

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Build community. Actively engage your representative's offices by phone and by letter - even printing the script from 5calls and mailing it is more impactful than sending a form email. Build community. Invest in mutual aid networks with your neighbors by providing what you have if and when they need it and by asking them for help. If you have the space and bandwidth, grow and share food with those who don't to help them free up some of their own bandwidth and encourage them to engage when they can. Build community. Engage with your local government and push for mitigation efforts and for climate-focused projects. Bring the community you're building to help push for these projects. Give yourself the grace to know that it's not just on you and that countless others like you are pushing towards those same goals where they are.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

TYSM for taking the time to put this together! I will definitely try to incorporate these points as actionable items in my daily & also, hopefully, educate and inspire others to act collaboratively.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

This will be fun at thanksgiving!