Chances of getting caught are next to nothing.
If you do get caught, you’re fucked. Like fucked. The legal headaches and costs going up against Adobe or MS will ruin you… forever.
With that said, pirating tools is one thing, but using other people’s loops or artistic work without approval is another matter altogether. And that kind of stuff will land you into all kinds of trouble, not to mention curb your work as talk will quickly get around in the community.
If you’re serious about becoming a musician or artist or a creative selling their work, reputation and community standing is like 90% of it.
And if you’re wondering how can an artist tell? We know our work. And people talk. Share stuff. Sooner or later, it’ll get around. The internet is still powered by people.