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A couple figures to aid the discussion. Hot off the presses from todays polling:
Biden versus Trump (up to date as of today):
Biden versus Trump and Clinton versus Trump (X axis is days out from the election):
For edification, Clinton versus Trump 2016 (keep in mind that Trump and Clintons polling numbers in the early parts of this figure represent being in contested primaries):
Another version comparing 2016 to 2024 (but more focused on the period of time before the election):
I don't find these kinds of comparisons and "latest data points" to be particularly helpful in these kinds of discussions. Voter sentiment is fickle, and how you quantify the "Uncommitted" movement will affect how the data is presented.
We don't know how the Uncommitted will actually vote in November, though we can be certain at least some will not vote for Biden if nothing changes. It's a political game of chicken, and it's Biden's move.
We don’t know how the Uncommitted will actually vote in November, though we can be certain at least some will not vote for Biden if nothing changes. It’s a political game of chicken, and it’s Biden’s move.
Clinton lost Michigan by 0.2% and it cost her the election. Her campaign opted to not focus on the rust belt and delivered us Trump in the first place.
Biden is losing this election, and I think if a Trump presidency concerns you, its especially worth considering.
Biden can't afford to lose any voters in Michigan. His policies are working against his ability to gather support in the 2024 election. We can't wait until after November to have this conversation. It needs to happen now.
Again, if Trump can’t win more than 65% of his own base as a former president, I’m not that worried. The dude has never won the popular it’s and sure as hell won’t this time. He’s definitely lost support. I will place money that Biden will win an even larger popular and electoral vote victory this time.
I would love to have your confidence bro. I really would. I just look at the polling, I look at the messaging, I look at the fervency of the bases, and I don't have it.
Trumps voters are excited as all hell to vote for him. He's got evangelicals perhaps literally worshiping him.
I just dont see what you are seeing..
I’ll bet you here and now Biden wins. Save this post.
Saved. Love to gamble.
I'll give you 1:1 on Biden winning. $20 enough to make it fun?
Also, I'd like to ask for 20:1 on Biden not being the candidate. If you want those odds, I'd also like to bet $20. (you'd be the house, so if I win, thats a $400 payout on you).
We can save this post and then venmo or paypal, whatever is preferred.
Also good with just the first bets or will hear counter odds on Biden not being the candidate.
100% Biden is the candidate. 100% Biden beats Trump.
SO bet than? We good with this and you good to keep to terms? 20$ on 1:1, and 20$ on 20:1?
Cus I would LOVE for you to take that $40 from me.
I’d bet anything Biden is the nominee and Biden wins the general. MAGA Cultists are so gullible.
Well i just laid out a 40 dollar parlay.
Do you agree to the bet?
I’ll take my money now. Biden just clinched the nomination! 😂
Was this the convention? Did I miss the convention?
You still got days bro, but it looks very likely you've made at least 20 bucks so far.
Democratic convention is in August. So if Biden is still kicking you get at least 20 bucks.
Edit: You also have to agree on the bet. You never actually agreed to the bet (see comment chain).
Yep, I agree for sure. Only a complete dumbass would be in denial of Biden winning the nomination. Bye the way, how’s your two time popular vote loser, sexual assaulting, financial fraud, election interfering, convicted felon doing?
Bro you are completely delusional if you think I'm for Trump.
And our bets still stands yeah?
Because I'm feeling better than ever about it.
Who should Biden worry about more? Getting the left wing of his party to nominate him, or getting the general electorate to the polls in November? It's a no brainer calculation.
I mean, the Democrats have been screwing the actually Left for decades now so...
If y'all actually voted, Democrats would care about you more. The Left is fickle and the DNC knows it.
The issue is the left is simply not large enough to win a primary. The reason Bernie wasn't nominated is simple: not enough votes.
Our system is one of coalition building. You either join the least bad coalition for your interests or you have no influence at all.
The left actually demands politicians earn their vote. Politics isn't supposed to be a team sport in the US. The entire reason we have elections so often is to make sure the voters approve of their representatives. That means voting out of team loyalty is a subversion of the system. And the charge of being fickle and lazy is undemocratic propaganda.
Democracy is about compromise. By refusing to compromise you're ceding power to the worst option.
Compromise requires both sides. And supplying a genocide isn't compromise.
"Not genocide" is not an option.
It is. Biden can stop providing arms to Israel.
And how are you gonna make him do that?
Voting uncommitted. Showing force. If Biden wants votes, he needs to not commit genocide.
I'll still vote for him most likely, even if he is a disgusting warmonger, because I know Trump is worse. However, I want him to see the magnitude of hatred the Americans he thought he could rely on for votes have for him and his genocidal antics.
That's bullshit. Leftists vote, the problem is that liberals aren't leftists and only care about serving Capital.
So there's more liberals than leftists. That's democracy.
Your point is wrong, though. Leftists voting for dems will only encourage more liberal policy, not leftist policy. You're advocating for leftists voting third party and spoiling their vote.
I'm advocating for leftists voting for the most left Dem they can get in any given race. Not for splitting the vote.
Liberal is better than fascist, correct?
The most "left" dem is right wing and wants to implement right wing solutions. The dems are not left.
Dems are more left than the literal nazis on the right wing.
Being less right does not mean more left, because politics are not actually axial. Being less right wing does not necessarily mean you're more Socialist.
So you're just claiming that whatever you believe, at the intensity you believe, is left wing, and all other things are not.
Stupid as hell, but whatever.
The point of my comment was liberals are not as bad as actual literal nazis. Do you disagree?
No, I'm not claiming that, lol. Don't put words in my mouth, especially if you're acknowledging that it's stupid as hell. It's both not what I said, and is condescending as fuck.
Left wing refers to Socialism, ie worker ownership of the means of production. Could be via Democratic Socialism, Communism, Anarchism, Synicalism, whatever. Liberalism isn't in that picture, because it's focused on Capitalism.
Liberals aren't as bad as Nazis, which is what you should've said, instead of saying that liberals are more left wing than Nazis. That doesn't make any sense, liberals aren't any more Socialist, they just aren't as fascist, so they are less extreme Capitalists.
Simple.
Liberals aren’t as bad as Nazis
Great. I'm gonna ignore all the other red herrings and drill down on this.
When your options are "bad" and "less bad", shouldn't you vote for "less bad"?
Yes, I never insinuated otherwise. However, your point this entire time is that this should move America to the left, and that leftists should be happy with that, which is wrong in both cases.
Well I disagree with your weird take that there's not a spectrum from right wing to centrist to liberal to "leftist", so the terminology is different. In your weird non axial political verbiage, I would say "this should move America farther away from the right, and that leftists should be happy with that."
It moves America further from fascism, but not closer to Socialism. Given that the goal of leftists is both anticapitalism and pro-socialism, failing to include the pro-socialist aspect means it's never going to be good for leftists, just not as bad, thus its on the liberals to actively throw the leftists a bone, rather than being not as evil.
it’s never going to be good for leftists, just not as bad
It's pretty much a moral requirement when given a binary choice to choose the less bad option.
Sure, but you've been working off false reasoning, and the point is that Biden has a responsibility to appeal to leftists if he wishes to garner more of their votes. You're blaming voters for bad policy by Biden, which doesn't make sense.
Who should Biden worry about more?
I think those 726k Trump voters are still winnable if Biden can just move a liiiiittle bit farther to the right.
I reregistered as independent after voting for Obama twice, Hillary, and then Biden.
Far left and far right are absolute lunatics, and the left will demonize you for trying to be centrist. So voting for Trump or uncommitted we go.
Trump calls someone a RINO like every 15 minutes, and he’s far right. What are you even talking about? You should probably go with uncommitted if you’re a single issue voter on whether people called you names for being a centrist.
Some replies have been nice, and then there are some like yours. Did you not read the part where the left demonizes more often for having nuanced political viewpoints?