this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2023
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Now that I use github copilot, I can work more quickly and learn new frameworks more with less effort. Even its current form, LLMs allow programmers to work more efficiently, and thus can replace jobs. Sure, you still need developers, but fewer of them.
Learning frameworks has never been hard, and frankly does not make up the majority of a developer's job. Maybe you do it while onboarding. Big whoop. Any good developer can do that fairly easily, and LLMs are entirely superfluous. Worse yet, since they are so commonly confidently incorrect, you have to constantly check if it's even correct. I'd prefer to just read the documentation, thanks.
A mature engineering organization is not pumping out greenfield projects in new languages/frameworks all the time. Greenfield is usually pretty rare, and when you do get a greenfield project, it's supposed to be done using established tools that everyone already knows.A tiny fraction of a developer's job is actually writing code. Most of it is the soft skills necessary to navigate ambiguous requirements and drive a project to completion. And when we do actually program, it's much more reading code than it is writing code, generally to gain enough understanding of the system in order to make a minor change.
LLMs are highly overrated. And even if it does manage to produce something useful, there's much more to a codebase itself. There's the socialization of knowledge around it and the thought process that went into it, none of which you gain when using an LLM. It's adequate for producing boilerplate no one reads anyway, but that's such a small fraction of what we even do (and hopefully, you can abstract away that boilerplate so you're not writing it over and over again anyway).