this post was submitted on 29 Apr 2025
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Absolutely, the vote splitting has cut both ways (all three ways, including the Bloc Quebecois). Three broadly left/centre-left parties are competing against a right that is, on the surface at least, united. All three of them stand to benefit from electoral reform in a way that the Conservatives do not.
Much of the Conservative strategy is around splitting the vote. In a post-electoral reform Canada, that strategy becomes useless and the Conservatives will have to bring something new. Their ability to pivot to a completely new strategy within a single election cycle is questionable, so getting this done is directly in Carney's interest right now.
Liberals are at most centre, or centre-right. The conservatives (or at least, most of the various factions within) and the Liberals are more compatible than the Liberals and the leftist parties. Evidence of this can be found in Sask, where the Liberals and the PCs amalgamated so they could collectively defeat the NDP. This is the far more natural arrangement. But since the conservative alliance and the LPC are the two largest parties nationally, the Liberals (and the leftists) are forced to accept strange bedfellows.