this post was submitted on 28 Apr 2025
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The replication crisis is real, but I'm going to give some pushback on the "ssssh" like it's some kind of conspiracy "they" don't want you to know about(TM). We live in an era of unprecedented and extremely dangerous anti-intellectualism, and pushing this as some kind of conspiracy is honestly really gross.
EDIT: I just noticed that they also got their facts wrong in a subtle but meaningful way: the statistic is that 50% of the published papers aren't replicable, not reproducible. Reproducibility is taking an existing dataset and using it to reach the same conclusions. For example, if I have a dataset of 500 pictures of tires and publish "Tires: Are they mostly round and black?" in Tireology, claiming based on the dataset that tires are usually round and black, then I would hope that Scientist B. couldn't take that same dataset of 500 tire pictures and come to the conclusion that they're usually square and blue. However, replication would be if Scientist B. got their own new dataset of say 800 tire pictures and attempted to reach my same findings. If they found from this dataset that tires are usually square and blue but found from my dataset that they're usually round and black, then my results would be reproducible but not replicable. If Scientist B. got the same results as me from the new dataset, then my results would be replicable, but it wouldn't say anything about reproducibility. Here, a lack of replication might come from taking too narrow a sample of tires (I found the tires by camping out in a McDonald's parking lot in Norfolk, Nebraska over the course of a weekend), that I published my findings in 1985 but that 40 years later tires really have changed, that there was some issue with how I took the pictures, etc.
I don't consider Psychology to be a scientific discipline - I belong to the hard sciences crowd.
My wife is a psychologist.
You understand that the "hard sciences" are also affected by this crisis, correct? "Soft science" is a borderline meaningless term that stigmatizes entire fields of science to the sole benefit of anti-intellectuals.
Even when we take into consideration that the problem is currently worse in sciences like psychology, economics, sociology, etc.: "these results support the scientific status of the social sciences against claims that they are completely subjective, by showing that, when they adopt a scientific approach to discovery, they differ from the natural sciences only by a matter of degree." Social sciences are science.
You don't belong to "the hard sciences crowd"; you belong to a Sheldon Cooper-esque stereotype who devalues work you don't understand.
Love the write-up, well done. These issues are huge, complex, fascinating, and depressing. It's always worth defending science, and you're right - this is basically the opposite of a conspiracy. Experts are actively screaming "something is wrong here!"
But, yeah, wow. What a shit take. Psychology is not science, from someone married to a psychologist? Soft sciences aren't science?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Charles Darwin's science was as soft as it gets! He didn't have p-values, he had pretty birds with funky beaks. One of the most important scientists to ever live, and his masterpiece did not have a single quantitative model.
Just because psychology got irrationally stuck on Freud for so long doesn't mean it's not science. We all learn about Lamarckian inheritance and think it's goofy as shit, doesn't mean we dismiss the entire field of biology.
No, the difference in the replication crisis between the soft "sciences" and the hard is enormous. The soft are basically producing results equal to making coin tosses.
I wonder if she regrets her marriage, or if she's trying to fix you.
Hey, maybe it's both!