this post was submitted on 09 Apr 2025
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You have to stop believing absurdities. Their economy is strong and manufacturing center, but 400M would give them 2x the number of cars per capita than US, as well as double GDP/capita and 5x PPP GDP per capita. Russia is a military peer to US, and has passed Germany and Japan to be 4th in PPP GDP.
US has been on a decline path. Accounting tricks (mainly owner's equivalent rent) is 15% of GDP, and healthcare 5% of GDP higher than any other country. Manufacturing decline too. Overconfidence in its own (yours?) disinformation and strength explains their current behaviour. It is certain that they would have/will be relatively weaker in 4 years.
While I agree that 400mil is really pushing it, the arguments for it is less than unconvincing. The issue is that most pre-COVID estimates (from Japanese, to Russian, even several inner Chinese ones) hover around 800-900mil. And it's a well known fact that for that the entire time they did the Zero COVID stuff, the crematories were running at eight times normal, burning 24/7 spewing black smoke from their chimnies the entire time with countless witness reports, the numbers actually add up that their population halved in those short years. It's hard to discount math, but...frankly as someone who trusts numbers to tell things as they are, even I find it difficult to believe.
But the economic numbers? They're shit. Anything that says otherwise is 99% government propaganda. You can tell from all the pictures of defunct economic activities being actively scrubbed from the internet that there's truth to it. Hong Kong is practically a ghost town nowadays. A decade ago, people were practically shoulder to shoulder on every major street during the day, but now, a few natives walking down the biggest streets without a single foreign-born in sight. No cars, no open businesses. Nothing.
There is no evidence to support that the Chinese economy is doing well on any measure. Many of the biggest Chinese companies have either left, or went bankrupt. Tencent and a few other tech giants are basically the only ones left, and that's because they make most of their money from foreign customers. Big businesses that rely exclusively on local customers are gone or have downsized massively. Tell me, what happened to Evergrand, one of the three biggest companies in China, and one of the top 20 in the world?
And I don't see why you are so argumentative on US's current weaknesses. I agreed there, and yet you can't help but attack me on that point despite completely agreeing on it? Seriously? Pick your battles and bring some data to back it up if you think I'm wrong.
Property development company that had financial difficulty. None of its equipment or expertise were destroyed. China moved to expand factories and manufacturing in response to housing downturn.