this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2025
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You could argue, convincingly, that it's incredibly risky not to.
Ukraine.
They made a deal with Russia to give up their nukes in exchange for Russia never invading them. Fast forward a handful of years and Russia invades them and they have no nukes as deterrent.
We're moving into a future where everyone is going to need nukes as a deterrent from being invaded.
Sucks, but humans are stupid, violent animals.
This is why I mentioned France and UK's nuclear umbrella. It's effectively the power of having nuclear weapons without actually having them.
Ukraine had the unfortunate fact that they only got a promise of nonintervention rather than a security guarantee backed by arms when they gave up their nukes.
Either way, while not having nukes might not entirely prevent others from pushing harder to get nukes of their own, at the very least, I believe we shouldn't be the ones starting this trend. It only takes one country with an itchy trigger finger to normalize using nukes in armed conflicts, which is one step away from preemptive nuclear war.
Fun fact, the US also provided security assurances. (Budapest memorandum.) Those turned out well, right?