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It's not a winning issue in sports. Anywhere else you'll get more support.
from Gallup polls
You are missing the point, the polls don't matter. I know it's a wedge issue that republicans slam on, but just because a thing is popular doesn't make it wise.
Scientifically (HRT equalizes everything after 2+ years)
Philosophically (trans women are women, trans men are men)
Politically (sets a precedent of gatekeeping certain areas)
Practically (intersex, cis athletes with unique biology)
From every angle you look at it, we can't enshrine ASAB as the end all determination. It's not a compromise that will make transphobic people chill, it will be a victory for them to push more.
Are you really going to tell me that a trans girl who was on puberty blockers as a child and HRT when she is old enough, who never went through "male puberty" at any point physically has some edge and should not be able to be on a girls soccer team? Because that flies in the face of all reason. Setting a law because of popularity instead looking at the facts will cause more problems down the road.
Are you going to tell her she can play a sport as long as she's not exceptional at it?
I'd be fine with the girls who are mediocre at a sport. It's not reasonable to tell anyone that they're allowed to play a sport as long as they aren't good at it. Trans women shouldn't be taking scholarships and awards away from born women.
The same doesn't apply to bathrooms or the gym. You can be as good as you want at pissing in whatever gender bathroom you want. I don't care.
Trans women who do not fully transition are going to have an advantage. And anyone who performs well is going to be suspected of not fully transitioning. It's not fair to them and not fair to born women.
We already have controls in sports on sex hormones. This isn't much different.
I wish the trans community all the best in areas outside of this one. I'll call you by whatever pronouns you prefer. You can use whatever bathrooms you want. But this issue is different.
I respect your argument. I'm just not convinced.
It's NOT a wedge issue in sports, as evident by the fact that a majority of independents, and a sizeable portion of democrats are also against it.
And it's also not settled scientifically. This isn't about ONLY testosterone. It's also about bone structure, muscle density, wing span l, height, ligaments and tendons, and much more. All things that don't just disappear with the cessation of testosterone.
I don't see how maintaining the status quo can be seen as a "victory that makes them push for more"? That argument is much easier to push the other way:
If someone can play a sport based on undergoing X treatment, isn't that discriminatory against those that can't afford treatment but still identify a certain way? What about XYZ women's only spaces, should we allow anyone that proclaims self-identifying a certain way into those spaces?
That's the same "victory to make them push for more" just flipped.