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This is something that I've been thinking about and came to the realisation of the last couple of months.
And this is exactly what Russia's objective was after the disaster of last year. Politically and strategically is the best they can hope for. Drag it out and Ukraine's allies and the world will get tired and stop caring. They'll stop supplying weapons, and sanctions will soften, maybe even start leaning towards supporting or feeling sorry for Russia. Something that were already seeing with Slovakia cutting all aid to Ukraine and taking a 'war is bad, negotiate peace' stance that is a blatant and thinly veiled Russian supportive line. Which is funny since their new govt is Russia leaning.
US are also starting to waver recently with the whole House Speaker débâcle. And Poland/Ukraine relations are a little frosty at the minute too.
That's before you even talk about the Russian strikes on the Ukrainian/Romanian border that are being almost ignored in relation to their severity. Or the Russian mining of the Black Sea. Or Russian missiles flying paths over Maldova on their way to Ukraine. It's a piss take. And only a matter of time unless the world pulls its finger out.
Keep in mind that Fico is lying populist. He is very vocal about ending support for Ukraine, but then ends up supporting budget that includes help for Ukraine.
He's very dependent on EU money. Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas very correctly pointed out to reporters that Hungary often said one thing to the media and did another thing behind closed doors. Fico is exactly the same.
Any military equipment Slovakia could send is already in Ukraine. And any future financial help will be approved by Fico after making loud claims in the media how he'll stop any and all support. Or pretend that the support is only humanitarian. (But obviously money is money, we can easily pretend the 1% of the overall budget that Slovakia sent was used for.. ..uh.. ..fuel?)
This was not because of fatigue, the assholes that were just voted in spewed Russian propaganda long before the war started.
But he was voted in by the people (I assume). So whoever voted him in didn't mind what he was saying at the very least. That still says something about fatigue among the people if not the government, right?
It's hard to know which is cause and which is effect to be honest. They are saying sweet sweet lies that people want to hear and in turn, they believe them everything. It's a fucked up and complex situation.
Are you correct? Likely. But last there were polls on this it was around 50:50 split I think - which is incredibly bad still, but in the end it means the bad guys just managed to tip the scale. As always they worked with emotions of hate and anger these elections and those are easier to rally behind than rational thoughts. And easier to sway people with.
*Moldova
And it gets worse, as people keep saying the worse seasonal weather makes further fighting more difficult. Do you what it doesn’t impede? Installing barricades and booby traps and mines. Winter could be yet another situation where Russia has relative peace to build up yet more defenses
The autumn in Ukraine this year has been unusually dry from the reports that I've heard, so it depends entirely on whether that continues through to and throughout the winter.