this post was submitted on 10 Dec 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3°C much faster than previously expected (phys.org)
submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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Three leading climate scientists have combined insights from 10 global climate models and, with the help of artificial intelligence (AI), conclude that regional warming thresholds are likely to be reached faster than previously estimated.

Mmmm faster then expected huh ?

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 weeks ago

in case you were worried this is alarmist,

34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.

The pattern from 2015 elnino saw no temperature since being below 2015 (or 2014 for that matter), with 2016 a recrod that stood until 2023. 2023 el nino, reached 1.5C, and 2024 is likely to set a new record. If the 2015/2016 pattern holds, 2030 or 2031 will be when we officially declare that "last 10 years have averaged over 1.5C" which is the IPCC threshold for 1.5.

Planet will not be getting cooler, or have less CO2 emissions. Even if energy transition accelerates, and China/India/EU have some hope to helping, forest fires and permafrost thaw won't stop at current temperature levels. War on Russia or Ukraine depending on your perspective is massive source of emissions, and eliminates any cooperation from Russia on climate, and more war is in the interest of oil producers, with little hope for less war. Sanctions/tariffs and counter sanctions is/will affect energy transition. Global recession is unlikely to boost forest management/fire fighting resources.

OP's targets for 1.5C being 9 years behind actual likely thresholds with no near term catalysts for annual co2 emissions even dropping to below 2ppm per year.

The 3C forecasts do have some time to mitigate, however.