this post was submitted on 31 Oct 2023
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They haven't been saying a release window for years.
They aren't currently the only company saying around 2028 because it has multiple companies involved.
Hydrogen would be the better option, but delivery is much more complicated than electricity.
Lithium batteries still suck and are a poor choice for all electric vehicles no matter if solid state batts come out or not. They don't last long enough, can't be replaced easily enough, weigh too much, and cost too much to replace.
It's also not a nail in the coffin to end needing oil or pollution. It will help a lot, but passenger vehicles use about 1/4 of all oil used and are far, far less than that for pollution created. So even if every single passenger car, suv, mini van, and pick up truck was all electric with batteries that never sent bad, you're looking at like 5% less pollution and 25% less oil consumption, and that's before you add some pollution back into the mix for what it will take to create all the extra electricity that would be needed, since we haven't gotten all of that switched over yet to solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear.
I'd love not needing to rely on gas for my vehicles, but at this time today it only minorly helps pollution and will make overpriced paperweights 15 or so years after purchase.
Hydrogen means throwing away 2/3 of the energy we generate. Driving on hydrogen can never be less than three times the cost of driving a battery EV, even if someone waves a magic wand and gives you a trillion dollars worth of hydrogen infrastructure for free. It's not the better option.
We've got batteries now that will outlast the vehicles they're in. You don't care that the engine in a gas vehicle will only last 30 years or that it's really heavy and expensive.
EVs also don't cure cancer. Nobody's really expecting them to solve problems that aren't related to vehicles in the first place.
Batteries now absolutely do not last longer than the vehicles. The batteries are generally 15 years before they need replaced and no more than 20, or as few as 10. They're also large and very heavy and cost over $10,000 or in some cases $20,000 to replace.
Hydrogen wastes a lot of electricity to make, but we're currently on the fast track to wind and solar, so wasting some electricity can become an acceptable loss in a future of renewable energy. Aside from that there's getting enough lithium in the first place in order to have everything go all electric.
That said, hydrogen will likely get skipped over. It is a waste of electricity right now, since we don't have an abundance of green electricity today, and we'll have better batteries that will last longer and be cheaper before we do have that much electricity possible.
Hydrogen is terrible. It is much more expensive than even gasoline, adds way more complexity compared to all electric, and extremely inefficient. It's a joke. It might make sense for semis in the future but will never make sense for passenger cars. The Mirai is a concept science experiment sold as a consumer car.
Batteries are expensive to replace right now but that's only because we don't have battery recycling infrastructure yet. Eventually they will be much cheaper to replace. Already, even factoring replacing the battery every 100k miles, electric cars are cheaper to own than gas and many batteries are known to last 200k+ miles. It really is only the Leaf that has the shitty battery that needs replacing.