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I don't know anything about the specifics here, but here's a 5 year graph of futures for live cattle versus beef:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle
If there's collusion to engage in price-fixing by meat packers, I'd expect to see beef prices rising without a corresponding increase in cattle prices.
Beef prices did indeed recently start rising rapidly without a corresponding increase in live cattle prices.
But on the other hand, beef prices are also a lot lower relative to live cattle prices than they were during roughly COVID-19.
TBF things look pretty different if you go back to 2015 like McDonald's is alleging.
EDIT: To me, it really looks like COVID was the big factor impacting price though.
COVID wasn't the only factor. What people don't remember because of all the other crazy shit that happened was that we had a 3 year drought.
Prices still haven't stabilized because it's expensive to buy cattle right now. Prices will likely be in the shitter for another 1.5-2 years, and I'm not sure they'll ever really come down in a way people notice.
Cattle retention has not even begun yet, you're absolutely correct. There will be 2+ more years of higher beef prices, we're still slaughtering more than are being born therefore cattle prices will continue to rise on a macro level.
I actually didn't realize that. I was thinking we were coming to an end because my buddy's ranch seems to have mostly recovered and he's got more cattle now than he had a few years ago. But I guess I should look at the wider market instead of a single place if I'm going to comment about things.
Oh, that's a good point -- missed that in the article. They did say that it started in 2015.