this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2024
140 points (98.6% liked)

Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

5237 readers
451 users here now

Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

Anti-science, inactivism, and unsupported conspiracy theories are not ok here.

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
 

This was the one soup-throwing which did any damage at all; in this case to the frame.

The penalty is appreciably worse than for minor violent attacks.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] [email protected] 44 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (5 children)

Unless you can demonstrate an actual harm that these people are doing to the cause, I am going to give them my support for doing SOMETHING. If it moves the needle a millionth of a percent in the right direction, tear down all the art galleries. We only have one planet.

Many of these cases have had jury nullification, which means a jury of twelve people who have been vetted to remove bias, all unanimously agreed to say "fuck you" to the legal system rather than lock up JSO activists.

That tells me that there is considerable public support for them, whatever you say to the contrary.

Edit: Here's a study about the actual problems facing the climate movement. Support isn't the issue:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01925-3

Abstract:

Mitigating climate change necessitates global cooperation, yet global data on individuals' willingness to act remain scarce. In this study, we conducted a representative survey across 125 countries, interviewing nearly 130,000 individuals. Our findings reveal widespread support for climate action. Notably, 69% of the global population expresses a willingness to contribute 1% of their personal income, 86% endorse pro-climate social norms and 89% demand intensified political action. Countries facing heightened vulnerability to climate change show a particularly high willingness to contribute. Despite these encouraging statistics, we document that the world is in a state of pluralistic ignorance, wherein individuals around the globe systematically underestimate the willingness of their fellow citizens to act. This perception gap, combined with individuals showing conditionally cooperative behaviour, poses challenges to further climate action. Therefore, raising awareness about the broad global support for climate action becomes critically important in promoting a unified response to climate change. Global support and cooperation are necessary for successful climate action. Large-scale representative survey results show that most of the population around the world is willing to support climate action, while a perception gap exists regarding other citizens' intention to act.

The abstract of that paper says that the real problem is people's lack of awareness of how incredibly high the support for climate action is, because that informs how likely they are to act.

In which case, all this hand-wringing about which actions increase or decrease support is a red herring, because the support is not actually in danger.

I would suggest that the real problem is people who handwring about the support creating the perception that the cause is less popular than it is.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The worse part is that they started with a plain wrong argument, this is not to attract the attention of billionaires, altough it can too. This is to catch the attention of everyone, to create a higher mass that is needed to change something, and tbh they are making more people aware of the issues, even if they get some stupid arguments against them when they are really doing no real harm as far as im aware.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Okay, and who hasn't heard of climate change by now? Who has been living under a rock that doesn't know that Big Oil is bad?

"Create a higher mass," ffs... You sound like a Christian justifying buying those "He Gets Us" Superbowl ads, as if nobody in the US has heard of Jesus before.

And no real harm? I guess we can just destroy history and artifacts, because who needs to learn from that shit amirite?

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago (2 children)

What's the point of preserving artifacts if there's no one to look at them anymore?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

There’s people (and children, who don’t need this bullshit) standing right there.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Which artifact was damaged? Because even in your link the article says:

"The New York Times’ ran an article titled “Climate Activists Throw Mashed Potatoes on Monet Painting,” further describing it in the subtitle as “the latest attack on widely admired art.” However, it is not until the fifth paragraph that the article notes that “the food did not cause any damage to the piece.” This raises the question, does the public differentiate between “damaging pieces of art” and “pretending to damage pieces of art” in their views of these non-violent, disruptive protests?

Also comparing having to make people understand the degree of damage we get from climate change vs christianity, its just an amazing analogy lol, what can i even say after that?. Have a nice day, i think you really need it.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 month ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago

Is there any data in here to suggest what the actual effect is on level of support, rather than people self-reporting their change in level of support?

Because here's one reading of the data, which I think is entirely reasonable:

  1. The people who report "no effect" on their support, which at 40% is the largest single group, already support efforts to address climate change, and this makes no difference to them.

  2. The people who report a decrease, great or otherwise, of their support, are just conservatives who know that the talking point is "this action decreases support" and so they're answering in a way that supports that narrative. In reality, these people were already opposed to any meaningful action in the first place, and this didn't change their actual level of support.

Without further analysis, this survey doesn't say much. Even the questions dishonestly imply that actual damage is being done to art, when that generally isn't the case.

Again, that survey comes up against a tide of jury nullifications, which would indicate a very strong material support for these activists and the cause they represent. The courts are trying to penalise people for mentioning climate change in their defense, which has got to blow back in their faces eventually. In fact these court cases may be an important part of swinging public sentiment against the government and towards radical action to change things.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Who gives a fuck about "disapproval?" "Disapproval" is entirely irrelevant -- actually no, more than that: "disapproval" is what reactionaries do when they can't ignore you anymore, which is a sign that you're winning.

Change like this doesn't happen because the Powers that Be "approve" of the protestors. Change like this happens because the protestors have caused enough disruption to force the Powers that Be to capitulate.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Who gives a fuck about "disapproval?" "Disapproval" is entirely irrelevant

If you’re trying to affect public opinion, it’s extremely relevant.

Change like this happens because the protestors have caused enough disruption to force the Powers that Be to capitulate.

Throwing soup on art. Listen to yourself. The Powers that Be are not affected one iota. In fact, as the study above has made clear, these twits have helped them.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

If you’re trying to affect public opinion,

Yeah, and they're not.

Throwing soup on art.

They did no such thing! They threw soup on glass, harmlessly.

Why are you lying about both their motives and their actions?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Those people who disapprove vote. They absolutely matter, and pretending they don't is why JSO will continue to lose.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

What the fuck are you even talking about? Do you think the Civil Rights Movement succeeded because White Moderates "voted" in favor of it?

No, the Civil Rights Movement succeeded because the massive disruptions it caused made it clear that trying to preserve the white supremacist status quo would no longer be possible, and that the only alternative to negotiating concessions to the likes of MLK and the NAACP would be having to deal with the likes of Malcolm X instead.

Similarly, Just Stop Oil's path to victory has absolutely fuck-all to do with popular "approval" of their tactics, but everything to do with becoming so disruptive that it becomes worth it to capitulate to their demands to make the protests stop. Just Stop Oil is trying to be the Malcolm X of the climate movement. They don't want your approval, and they don't need your approval.

Spamming the false notion that approval matters all over the thread is nothing but the reactionary pearl-clutching of a concern troll.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Do you think the Civil Rights Movement succeeded because White Moderates "voted" in favor of it?

I hate to tell you this but that’s literally what happened.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 1 month ago

Okay, let me be clearer: they didn't vote to "approve" of the protestors. They voted to accede to the protestors demands even though they fucking hated MLK, because they had no choice.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Do you think the Civil Rights Movement succeeded because White Moderates "voted" in favor of it?

It would not have succeeded otherwise, since they were the ones in power.

Similarly, Just Stop Oil's path to victory has absolutely fuck-all to do with popular "approval" of their tactics, but everything to do with becoming so disruptive that it becomes worth it to capitulate to their demands to make the protests stop.

And look how well that's working out: https://web.sas.upenn.edu/pcssm/commentary/public-disapproval-of-disruptive-climate-change-protests/

Spamming the false notion that approval matters all over the thread is nothing but the reactionary pearl-clutching of a concern troll.

Sounds like somebody is butthurt that they realize they don't actually have a good defense other than nihilism. Refute my points, if you have a problem, but ad hominem attacks aren't a valid justification why my points are invalid.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago

What part of your study is measuring an irrelevant thing do you not fucking understand?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Unless you can demonstrate an actual harm that these people are doing

The actual harm that people are doing is making the fight against big oil look like it’s being done by clueless morons. The proof is all the comments saying this very thing.

Yes, yes, they did something, and kudos there but not all press is good press.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 month ago

No, don't just tell me the harm you reckon is happening, demonstrate it.

You want to claim some harm is happening, then show your working.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

But it’s not moving the needle, not at all ! It’s only fuelling antipathy towards environmental activism, and you can bet your favourite thing rightwingers are using that to pull centrists into their side.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

I've given some pretty compelling evidence that public support for these activists is extremely high, and in response you have... some flatulence.

Here, I'll respond in the way you did:

But it is moving the needle, it totally is!

See? I can say things too.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 1 month ago (2 children)

These people didn't get a jury nullification, though, so clearly that doesn't apply here. I don't have a problem with all of their actions, just these that cause permanent or potentially permanent harm to historical artifacts.

And I disagree with your premise that history and its artifacts are a worthy sacrifice for any cause; that's how we get ignorant people and despots who weaponize that ignorance.

Doing "something" doesn't mean it's effective or worthwhile. I could throw soup on a painting, or I could spray paint a billionaire's mansion. I could paint Stonehenge, or I could sue the polluters. I could deface historical artifacts, or I could lobby a politician.

What they did is so dumb, and while I appreciate people who want to see anything done, making the news isn't some kind of event that will realistically "move the needle" and suddenly open the eyes of the ignorant.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Even a single nullification is incredibly rare, but it's happening enough that the government is making efforts to stamp out discussion of jury nullification.

We all know what the Streisand Effect is, so the logical result here is that more and more people will hear about the practice, more people will do it, and the public and those in power will get the message - you can't weaponise the legal system against us anymore.

It might even get to the point that they're afraid to prosecute because they don't want more nullifications to happen.

Then what? What do the people in power do when they discover that they can no do that? They start to be afraid of what else people might nullify. What about actual violent actions, would people get a free pass then? How willing would they be to throw the cops against people when those people are starting to wake up to the fact that we outnumber them, and we don't have to convict people if we don't want to?

When they're afraid of that, you might start to see action. Or you might see more violent repression, at which point who knows what the next step will be, but it's better than sitting around waiting for committees to decide that action must be taken which will then be ignored by those in power.

And we get ignorant people and despots because people in power use propaganda to miseducate the public, not because art galleries close.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 month ago

We all know what the Streisand Effect is, so the logical result here is that more and more people will hear about the practice, more people will do it, and the public and those in power will get the message - you can't weaponise the legal system against us anymore.

I know what it is, but I do not agree that it's the logical result, and we do not know for a fact that it will cause people to become activists as a result. What you're essentially saying is that the governments will clamp down harder and harder, and The Free People will Unionize™! Meanwhile, we have contemporary and historical examples where that didn't happen.

So I reject your following premises as wishful thinking. The people in power aren't scared of nullified juries, because judges can override juries, and the powers that be have the additional capability to use extrajudicial tactics while claiming plausible deniability in the public square.

I understand and appreciate people's desire to revolt—movies and books have made it appear very romantic—but activists are not going to change the world without the power of the governments. They would be better served by running for office rather than running from the State.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

I could throw soup on a painting,

Yes, evidently they managed to do it

or I could spray paint a billionaire's mansion.

You'd get arrested before ever reaching the wall.

I could paint Stonehenge,

Yes, evidently

or I could sue the polluters.

In the court the polluters have stacked themselves? Let me know how that goes. The polluters have more money and lawyers than you.

The people deciding the laws are bought.

I could deface historical artifacts,

Yes

or I could lobby a politician.

What with all the millions you just have laying around? Lol get real.

I suggest you introspect as to why the potential (or even actual) damage of artifacts makes you so angry. Why don't all the artifacts that were lost to time make you angry as well? I understand feeling disappointed if one ever gets destroyed, but you seem much more agitated than that. That anger can be easily manipulated by your environment to make you do things against your self interest.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

I suggest you introspect as to why the potential (or even actual) damage of artifacts makes you so angry.

I told you why. It's not my fault you refuse to read.

Why don't all the artifacts that were lost to time make you angry as well?

Because "time" isn't a conscious agent.

That anger can be easily manipulated by your environment to make you do things against your self interest.

You mean like throwing soup on a painting, accomplishing nothing, and getting a prison sentence? Lol

Edit: clarified a word.