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I think he absolutely believed it. The "But I saw it on TV!" seemed 100% genuine.
Yeah he's not nearly clever enough to be two-faced about this kind of stuff. He just believes whatever the people around him tell him to believe. It might be the scariest thing about him as Commander in Chief really.
The way he responded about the official statement reveals how he views all public servants as well. Paraphrasing the response to the official statement: "yeah, well that's a nice thing for an official to say. But I saw it on TV what they were saying!"
His initial reaction is essentially "of course the official is lying, that's what you do."
Plus, he had "concept of a plan" in his front pocket. He had that think ready. If nothing else, his debate prep got that in his head.
He had it ready because he's said it before and has been saying it since 2015. Seth Myers ran a supercut in his post-debate special.
When he said that it just made it so much worse. So he sees something on TV, decides it will benefit him in some way, so he repeats it.
What he believes is irrelevant except as mens rea, but at the same time he has given constant indication that he fully believes whatever is most convenient at the time. This is an individual who after over a decade involved in politics has embraced the card says moops with a consistency and commitment that surely must be pathological