this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2024
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99%? Really? Where did you get that percentage?
The tech is awesome already and getting developed extremely fast. Sure, there are many negatives, but many might just be growing pains.
On a wider scale : this is THE tech. This is the direction, it's is inevitable. Of course it's important how the development happens, there are many nuances to it. What I don't like is these blanket hate statements against something. Many people are using ai today and benefiting in personal life and business.
Then where is it?
There's hardly any application that's more than a gimmick. ChatGPT is an incompetent liar, Sora and all the image/video generators produce mediocre crap the can't reasonably controlled, chat bots keep making up stuff, etc. etc.
This tech is done. Why do you think there's no progress from openai? The tech hit a ceiling. LLMs scaled to their current state very quickly, but each increment used exponentially more compute. There's not enough compute, not enough training data to get better.
I'm pretty sure, you don't understand how models work. It's just magic for you. Just like blockchains, NFTs and VR. None of them changed the world in any meaningful way - just scams.
AI companies very fundamentally don't make money, and have no way to become profitable in the near future. None of their tech has any business model. OpenAI relies 100% on Microsoft essentially donating azure instances.
Sure, AI has its applications, but not hundreds of billions worth of applications.
I have no idea what you are talking about. I don't normally do this but lets look at what you wrote in parts.
This tech has already irreversibly changed coding, graphic design, marketing, writing, education,....
Its not. Its pretty competent for a technology launched less than 2 years ago. Its the most competent piece of tech by far. (Launched less than 2 years ago) Its not a liar, its hallucinating, which is a big topic of development of this new technology.
Sora is not even publicly released yet, so I don't think its fair to criticize. Image generators have already revolutionized graphic design, marketing, art, ...
This tech has barely started.
There are so many news about AI advancement weakly that I have no idea what you are talking about.
Says who? A few influencers? You think companies would be investing hundreds of billions if there is nothing there? Its not only about throwing things in a pot and stirring, there are different ways of organizing the training data. There is synthetic data. There is so much data in the world we will never be out of it.
You would be wrong, as I work in AI research. To be frank I don't work as an llm researcher, but Im close enough to have picked up a few things.
AI already changed the world.
First thing you said that's actually correct, but I don't know how that matters to your point.
So it does have applications? I thought it was all scams, lies and mediocre crap,....
So all your points are "nu-uh".
Show me a single product that is even close to being worth the investment.
How can openAI ever recoup all the money?
Where? Writing boilerplate articles without content for dying news outlets? "Coding" hardly changed. You know why? Because typing code is by far the least time consuming part of the work.
And where are all those great graphic design products? You mean those cool images of Trump riding a laser velociraptor?
Yes. Also, Metaverse, blockchain, etc. Ever heard of the dotcom bubble? Same pattern.
Hard doubt. Because the number one virtue of a scientist is to know the limitations of their subject. So either you're not actually a researcher, or a really bad one.
You know very well that's not true as you have contradicted yourself a few times already.
Are we talking about money now? I thought we were talking about how its all a scam that's harming humanity.
Coding, writing, marketing, graphic design, ....
Cant you see stuff you are saying? Thats really emotional stuff, its clouding your rationale.
Yes, that as well. But mainly small tasks that used to be menial and now they are practically gone. Ideas, retouching, photo manipulations,....
Thats pretty naive. Dotcom bubble has nothing to do with it. A completely different thing.
I don't care. Plus I already said I'm not a researcher. I work at a company that does ai research.
You are so emotionally charged. I don't know if its only your hate of AI, or if you want to somehow win over me in this conversation. Its pointless. AI already helps a lot of people in an incredible amount of ways. Some of them were mentioned in the comments. Its not serious to call them scams and I don't know what else you said. Its not serious. I think its better to end this exchange. I must say I like talking to people with different views, but it has to be in good faith and I don't see that here with all the generalizations.
Let me rephrase that: "My salary depends on believing that AI is great, so I will not stop believing"
But sure, I'm emotionally charged. Not the guy who's (poorly) defending his excuse for work.