this post was submitted on 21 Jul 2024
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The ROI on electric vehicles dwarfs the SpaceX program. Whether Tesla flounders or not, the car market is more profitable (and therefore more valuable) both by the marginal return on units and the industry market cap.
Starlink might keep an edge over Chinese and Indian programs (doubtful, since India can send a probe to Mars for $75M). But the global satellite market was $4.23B last year. The global car market was $578B.
Orders of magnitude different.
That's true, however Tesla's relevance in that market has really dwindled:
Tesla gross profit for the quarter ending March 31, 2024 was $3.696B, a 18.07% decline year-over-year. Tesla gross profit for the twelve months ending March 31, 2024 was $16.845B, a 15.37% decline year-over-year. Tesla annual gross profit for 2023 was $17.66B, a 15.31% decline from 2022.
The thing is SpaceX and Starlink have weathered the Elon Musk storm. Starlink was predicted to make $6.6B in revs of, as you said, a market that is currently much smaller. Sure, it's not profit and firing things into space isn't cheap (nor desirable and should be legislated against). However, they're filling the niche and as EV manufacture ramps up, and with Tesla's image tainted, I do think Musk (and those around him) will be looking a bit more towards the steady government money.