this post was submitted on 06 Oct 2023
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I don't believe for one bit that windows will move to a pure subscription based model. They are greedy, but not stupid.
What's more believable is that the base OS will be the same as usual, but if you want fancy AI assistants in your OS, you must subscribe, with the justification being that MS must pay for the servers running the models you're using.
Yeah this sounds like the most reasonable outcome but companies have been surprising me recently with how dumb they can be.
The difference between greedy and stupid grows smaller every time the shareholders demand a profit. The only proof you need of that is tracking the OS development from win7 to win11.
The logic "We know you guys pay $120 for a license but here's ads on your lockscreen" was called stupid 10 years ago.
Then, "We know you guys pay $120 for a license and deal with forced updates and lockscreen ads, but here's a framework for ads in your file explorer" was called stupid a few years ago.
Now here we are listening to them say, "We know you guys pay for a license and deal with ads all over everything you're doing with mandatory updates and setting reversion when we don't like what you're doing, but we're also gonna charge you $10/month indefinitely" and saying to ourselves that they can't be that stupid.
The reality is that there's no reason to push a new version of windows that doesn't make them more money. This is that.
So I can pay less and have less of their bullshit on my system? Sounds like a great deal
...which would be valid
I agree, corpo world is already 100% in subscription mode and consumers buy windows through OEM. If you buy OEM laptop, how would you sell subscription windows with it? I see it as a no go, it would force OEM laptops to be sold with Linux.
If you sell updates through subscription, you would end up in 2000's when malwares infected the whole internet with non-patched windows machines. This hurts your PR so poorly that I don't think they are that stupid.
Of course they are thinking their ass off how they could convert consumers to subscription, but I don't see way to do it.
"SomeShittyAntivirus free for 12 months with purchase of this laptop!"
What happens when the trial ends? Windows won't load? Would brands like Dell/HP/Fujitsu/Acer really agree that, their customer service would be full of old people complaining that their laptop is not working.
The article addresses literally all of your points. Installing windows would be free for oems so it's actually good for them, and MS would probably offer a free tier with ads for end users who don't want to pay.
To me that's completely believable and sounds exactly like something MS would do.
Probably AD free+AI features are behind subscription, and in sense I would be Ok with it.
My guess is that MS will figure out a different approach. Maybe the enterprise versions are behind a subscription while the consumer version stays the way it currently is. They could also take the Apple approach. Offer a little bit of something for free (like iCloud) and charge if you want more of it. There could also be specific features that are not available if you don’t pay (like Apple Music). MS could offer a certain part of consumer windows for free, and charge for some other part, like advanced settings.
Corporate are already in subscription mode, pretty much all companies have some sort of per user subscription with MS. E3/E5/F3 etc licenses include windows+m365+office+defender etc.
It could be for their cloud based OS
Kind of funny to me how the role of operating system has evolved.
We've gone from "low level software to manage memory and hardware" to "bloatware that will let you use our hardware with your hardware"
I don't think 12 will be pure subscription, but if its not, 13 definitely will be
Jokes on them, I don't want their invasive AI crawling my system and reporting back to MS
Yeah, the average consumer doesn't buy Windows. They buy a computer and it happens to come with Windows most of the time. Those consumers aren't going to want to pay for a subscription. Especially when you look at the prices of the kinds of computers that most people are buying. They're budget machines. No way a subscription would go over well. And why would OEMs want to deal with the fallout of people not buying their computers because of subscriptions?
Microsoft is most definitely stupid. I mean, look at the mess that is Windows 10. That OS is just plain stupid.