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Battery electric vehicles lose their spark in Europe as hybrids steal the show (www.theregister.com)

submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

You have an incredibly adversarial tone with that "actual numbers" as if mine aren't, so I'm not going to continue.

But I will point out I'm using averages and you are cherry picking low mileage per year, low fuel consumption, and low gas prices. And I'm guessing funny electric numbers to change 1/4 the cost of gas to nearly 2/3 the cost. And funny enough you are combining low mileage per year with moderately-high battery replacement rate. You are picking and choosing.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

I meant actual numbers in regards to my last comment (the one you previously replied to) since I was just basing that one on calculations I did like a year ago. So now I made another comment where I used actual numbers instead of just roughly writing my conclusion from a year ago. It was not directed at your comment, sorry for the misunderstanding.

And I'm using low mileage per year because as I stated in the comment before this is about my situation, about if an EV is practical for me or if I'm forced to wait until they're getting cheaper. Currently I'm at around 5000 km per year, I use public transport a lot (and am not expecting that to change anytime soon).

Also the price per kWh is the average price per kWh in my area and is roughly the average I'm getting (I think I have 0.17€ rn since it's cheaper in summer but I also had 0.42€ already in winter so 0.2€ average really isn't high).

Battery replacement rate is based on this (first search result for ev battery degradation):

At the average degradation rate of 2.3% per year, an EV battery would take 15 years to decline to 70% maximum charge. However, as we expect EV battery life to decline non-linearly, there would likely be a more significant drop-off as the battery ages.

This means the battery is at 80% capacity after 10 years, which already drops the range below 300 km in winter for not insanely expensive EV. I do not have first hand experience on how many years a battery lasts, but even if it lasts 20 years (63% with this formula, although they do state that it's expected to decline quicker after longer usage, and current EVs wouldn't get my minimum 300 km winter range anymore) I'm still at break even point when buying a new battery after those 20 years.

That's why I'm holding off for now and just continue driving my reliable 25 year old Skoda, hoping for EV to become cheaper soon (all it takes is a new battery technology... the battery is why EVs are so expensive rn).

And your source is calculating with prices from 2019. Before COVID, before the Russo-Ukrainian war. I'm using numbers from this year.