this post was submitted on 07 Jun 2024
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It is ahistorical to think a third party will win at all with FPTP. Libertarian Gary Johnson had over three times more votes than Stein in 2016 and he only got a bit past 3%. Neither of them had actual EC votes.
The government is not going to trend towards leftism from voting. It is going to trend towards fascism and authoritarianism because the Repubs reliably come out to vote and will vote for someone who already did a putsch and is openly talking about dictatorship and assassinating political opponents. The Dems are going to trend (further) towards fascism chasing the middle voter if they do get another chance.
Plenty of countries have managed to be authoritarian for decades if not longer, but perhaps the regime would be toppled after a period of war. I don't think there's any guarantee an improved government would form out of the rubble from that.
Well, I don’t think a third party will win either to be honest. That’s why I didn’t say it would or that the third party voter should only do so if they can win. I think a strong third party showing like what you described from greens and libertarians from a party that does grassroots organizing like psl would build political power that doesn’t come from the extant local/state bourgeois and national/global bourgeois structures.
That newly built political power would either have its ideas folded into one of the major parties or would fundamentally change the political landscape of the imperial core and become a new major political party or even some unknown third outcome!
I agree with you that voting isn’t gonna turn the government towards leftism of any kind. A leftist third party vote will though tip the scale however imperceptibly towards giving attention, material advantages and public awareness to those ideas.
Now if you’re like me, and you believe that there’s no future with the republicans or democrats, then it’s a no-brainer to vote for a leftist party like psl.
But for a person who sees the ratchet effect in action yet still believes it to be reversible, who believes that the democrats can be good enough to oppose fascism instead of just being its handmaidens, I also believe a third party leftist vote is a no-brainer: it forces the democrats to see your views.
They cant twist your ideas, they can’t say they have a mandate to continue the genocide, they can’t deepfake or dismiss you because you told them in clear, unequivocal terms exactly what votes they could get and in what districts they could win if they had those policies and platforms.
If you don’t care weather we get a new ascendant egalitarian American labor movement that ushers in an end to global neoliberalism or the democrats cynically adopt left wing policies and platforms as long as things get better then a third party vote for the leftist party of your choice is best.
In a world where the Repubs would also vote rationally it might be the right choice. But they're all in on this guy. They're all in on whoever it is every election. Fox has brainwashed a huge swath of the country. Even worse, the land area gets the voting power instead of the people. So the Dems are only ever going to actually care about the opinions of a few select districts in a few select states.
And I don't think you see as much of a difference between Dems and Repubs as I do, so you view Donald as less of a risk than I do. I think it was a huge disaster 2017-2021 and it would be complete and (this time) irreversible disaster 2025 to whenever. I'm still not sure if 2017 was reversible TBH.
I appreciate the dialogue but I think we've reached the point where our fundamental beliefs about it are just at odds. Neither of us will convince each other to be all the way on the other's position. Let's conclude amicably (I think we were).
(I don't mean to cut you off, if you had closing thoughts to respond with here, I'll read them. But I might not follow up.)
You don’t need to respond to anything you don’t want to. I’m not trying to convince you of anything, but I hope that someone who reads our exchange and doesn’t feel comfortable with your outlook yet still wants to vote or can’t let themselves give up in despair will see mine as an alternative.
How do you think the republican base voting rationally would make a leftist third party vote the right choice? I tried to work within your own suppositions that the system is fundamentally broken and that we already have fascism to construct my arguments, I can’t see how the way the conservative base votes plays into that.
If you’re willing to elaborate on the differences between the democrats and republicans you see I’m always interested to hear them. I also think that they’re different but that those differences aren’t significant enough in word or deed to make me consider one over the other.
I’d also be interested in hearing what made trumps first term so disastrous and why you think it might not be undone.