this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2024
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We referred to the dotcom bubble as the dotcom bubble, but that didn't mean that the web went away, it just meant that companies randomly tried stuff and had money thrown at them because the investors had no idea either.
So same here, AI bubble because it's being randomly attempted without particular vision with lots and lots of money, not because the technology fundamentally is a bust.
That's a good thing to put it in perspective, yeah. The amount of people who think AI is just a fad that will go away is staggering.
Yeah, right now the loudest voices are either "AI is ready to do everything right now or in a few months" or "This AI thing is worthless garbage" (both in practice refer to LLM specifically, even though they just say "AI", the rest of AI field is pretty "boringly" accepted right now). There's not a whole lot of attention given to more nuanced takes on what it realistically can/will be able to do or not do. With proponents glossing over the limitations and detractors pretending that every single use of LLM is telling people to eat rocks and glue.
Yeah, I'm super salty about the hype because if I had to pick one side or the other, I'd be on team "AI is worthless", but that's just because I'd rather try convincing a bunch of skeptics that when used wisely, AI/ML can be super useful, than to try talk some sense into the AI fanatics. It's a shame though, because I feel like the longer the bubble takes to pop, the more harm actual AI research will receive
Some of it is a fad that will go away. Like you indicated, we're in the "Marketing throws everything at the wall" phase. Soon we'll be in the "see what sticks" phase. That stuff will hang around and improve, but until we get there we get AI in all conceivable forms whether they're a worthwhile use of technology or not.
I just plan to keep using it. Also interesting thing at work I had an idea about a year ago for a sensing system that could predict when the machinery we sell needed some maintenance. No one thought it would work. This past month the CEO told me to go ahead with "his AI idea" and plans for us to file a patent. Be my second.
My point is if nothing else this raised the bar that much higher.
it's a fad in terms of the hype and the superstition.
it won't go away. it will just become boring and mostly a business to business concern that is invisible to the end consumer. just like every other big fad of the past 20 years. 'big data', 'crypto', etc.
5 years ago everyone was suddenly a 'data scientist'. where are they now? yeah... exactly.
Quants. They make more money than most doctors. I know one who is 39 and is retiring.