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We need a "Trump spends a day in jail" index, where an update to a case yielding 1 day in jail after all appeals are said and done going from 0% likely conviction to 100% likely conviction is a TDIJ value of +1. It would require use of actuarial tables to determine the likely-hood of Trump being alive at the start of the sentence, as well as how long he would serve statistically based on the same actuarial tables and the likely-hood of a medical pardon at old age based on age-and-race based medical pardon rates. The start date would be estimated based on the average length of Trump-post-president appeal lengths to each level of court, and the total time served in federal cases (but not state cases) would be multiplied by Biden's current polling average. I'm not sure how to set up the likely conviction percentages, but I guess swings in Las Vegas betting markets could be used for a stand in.