this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2024
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Well Russia hasn't managed to destroy Ukraine's existing manufacturing capacity, so yes. Minister of Strategic Industries Kamyshin claimed a twenty-fold increase in artillery shell production over 2023 a couple of months ago, and while he's obviously going to be leaning towards a favourable view of the situation given his job I think that the many deals signed by Ukraine's NATO suppliers to begin manufacturing within Ukraine suggest that there is some substance to his words. Russia does not have access to most of Ukraine and, despite Ukraine's lack of a real airforce, has not been able to successfully establish air superiority.
they have though
they can claim whatever they want for propaganda, in the real world we can observe their artillery shortages and failed offensives
you don't need air superiority to destroy a factory, please put aside the wishful thinking for 5 minutes if you can
troops can retreat, equipment can be relocated somewhere else, a factory is a static building that you CANNOT MOVE, no matter how much air defense you put near it eventually a missile, drone or shell will go through and damage/destroy it
Russia is one of the biggest artillery manufacturers and stockpilers in the entire world and even they're suffering some shell constraints. There is a lot of space between "literally all the ammunition you could want" and "zero ammunition", especially in a conflict like this. Both sides are fighting in a way that will eat basically any volume of artillery ammunition that is available. So no, shell constraints do not indicate a totally destroyed domestic industry.
That's why you don't build it near the front line. Ukraine is big. Russian aircraft attacking a factory in Kyiv or even further west would have to spend absolutely ages in extremely hostile airspace.