relianceschool

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In the U.S., coastal floods now happen three times more often than they did 30 years ago, and the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding are projected to increase into the future. By 2050, floods are expected to happen 10 times more often than they do today.

Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Finder provides maps and analysis of the people, homes, and land projected to be at risk from worsening coastal flooding. Around 2.5 million Americans in 1.4 million homes live in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050, with Florida, New York, and New Jersey facing the highest risks.

You can explore the data here: https://app.climatecentral.org/coastal-risk-finder

[–] [email protected] 27 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

Agreed. I'm getting tired of these pencil-pusher reports implying that "the economy" is going to keep chugging along at a reduced rate, as if we can just shuffle around our stock portfolios and weather the storm.

The "Planetary Solvency" report by IFoA is one of the first mainstream papers that's taking a sober look at the climate crisis. If we hit 2°C by 2050, they're seeing a significant likelihood of:

  • 2 billion deaths
  • High number of climate tipping points triggered, partial tipping cascade.
  • Breakdown of some critical ecosystem services and Earth systems.
  • Major extinction events in multiple geographies.
  • Ocean circulation severely impacted.
  • Severe socio-political fragmentation in many regions, low lying regions lost.
  • Heat and water stress drive involuntary mass migration of billions.
  • Catastrophic mortality events from disease, malnutrition, thirst and conflict.

I don't even want to think about 3°C and 4°C scenarios.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Jesuits are real ones. The Nazis considered them to be one of their "most dangerous enemies" due to their principled opposition. Glad to see they're keeping the flame alive.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 days ago

Banks trying to take profits buying air conditioner stocks while society and the biosphere is crumbling around them is a perfect encapsulation of this crisis. I'm doing my best to laugh at the absurdity of it all, because the alternative is paralyzing depression.

If you're interested in the more fundamental dynamics at play here, I'd highly recommend giving these a watch:

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

It is the stock brokerage division of banks giving their boiler room reps a “hot tip” lead.

"When it gets hot, people will use more air conditioning." Thanks Morgan Stanley, that's some real insider knowledge.

 

The U.S. Supreme Court this week declined to take up a closely watched lawsuit brought by 21 young people challenging the federal government’s fossil fuel energy system.

The high court’s decision Monday in Juliana v. United States ends a 10-year legal effort to hold the government accountable for knowingly endorsing an energy system that would destabilize the climate. The complaint claimed the situation infringed on the young plaintiffs’ rights to life, liberty and property and called on the government to phase out carbon emissions and implement national plans to address the energy and environmental problems they created.

The Supreme Court offered no reason for declining Juliana. Rodgers said the organization was considering options. The Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Thank you for sharing! I'm a big proponent of the planetary boundaries framework, it's a great way to visualize overshoot. While climate change is a big (perhaps the biggest) issue facing global civilization right now, it's extremely important that we don't get tunnel vision and try to solve for one variable without looking at our biosphere holistically. (That's how we get carbon capture and geoengineering.)

A few more links/resources for those interested:

[–] [email protected] 7 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

The IPCC, FAO (UN), and the World Resources Institute put emissions from (all) agriculture at around 20%-25% of total emissions.

This article cites a single paper in opposition, which claims that emissions from animal agriculture are more than double that number. I don't have the time or expertise to comb through that paper with a critical eye, but the reports of the above organizations cite dozens of studies so it seems the weight of evidence is tilting towards the 20% figure.

This isn't to say that animal agriculture isn't an issue - it's a huge issue, and not just for the climate. But I think it's important to acknowledge that these emissions numbers aren't widely accepted.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago

Some key findings from this report:

  • A review of 50 research articles finds there is strong evidence climate activism influences public opinion and media coverage, but it depends on the tactics used and the way the media covers the events.
  • There is moderate evidence that climate activism influences voting behavior and policymaker attention.
  • More research is needed on the influence of climate activism on policy change and environmental outcomes.

The YPCC summarized the findings below:

The review finds strong evidence that climate activism influences public opinion and media coverage, although the specific relationship depends on the kind of actions taken and the way the media covers the events. The evidence shows that protest usually increases support for the movement when protests are peaceful, but not when they are violent. But there was also evidence that the influence of activism on public perceptions could be positive or negative, depending on the tone of the media coverage of the protests.

The review found moderate evidence that climate activism can influence voting behavior and policymaker attention. One study in Germany found that areas that experienced Fridays for Future protests had a higher share of the vote go to the Green Party, and that repeated protests increased the effect. Multiple studies in the UK found that protests successfully increase communications by policymakers about climate change or pro-climate actions.

There was less evidence that climate activism leads directly to policy change or improvements in environmental quality. This is not necessarily because climate activism does not affect these outcomes or others we reviewed—it is likely because studies that capture these outcomes are difficult to conduct.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

The vast majority of pollution is created by the vast majority of people. The impact of the ultra-wealthy is large individually, but small collectively.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

I don't believe that we should be pursuing growth in an era of global overshoot, but I do believe that this kind of messaging has a better chance of getting through to people who care more about the economy than the biosphere.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

The difficulty in regulating mining in international waters are precisely why companies are rushing into this market. It's much harder to stop something that's already been started, and regulatory agencies are notoriously slow.

What we do know of seabed mining is that it's incredibly destructive to marine ecosystems. As Peter Watts writes,

Very little research has been done on the environmental impacts of deep-sea mining. The only real study was undertaken thirty years ago, led by a dude called Hjalmar Thielon. It was a pretty simple experiment. They basically dragged a giant rake across 2.5 km2 of seabed, a physical disturbance which— while devastating enough— was certainly less disruptive than commercial mining operations are likely to be. Today, thirty years later, the seabed still hasn’t recovered.

But what's more concerning is what we don't know, as very little research has been conducted on its impact. Moreover, many of these ecosystems are largely uncharted. We could very well destroy something before we have the chance to understand it.

On a higher level, this is what happens when you attempt to solve for one variable (climate change, in this case the transition to renewables and its associated mineral demand) instead of looking at an issue holistically (i.e. the total integrity of our biosphere).

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

Beautiful! I'm hoping I can get some established as well.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Ignorance, petulance, and a willful dismissal of the truth are the new norms for this "administration." But information wants to be free, and this is a good example of how the internet can be a force for good.

Thank you to Fulton Ring for making the raw data publicly available on their Github. I'll be downloading this data and hosting the risk maps on my website as well; the more copies of this information out there, the better.

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