this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2025

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'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%. (www.commondreams.org)

submitted 2 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

162 comments fedilink hide all child comments

"The president single-handedly wiped out Americans' retirement savings overnight and subjected businesses to intense whiplash with his increasingly erratic and chaotic policies that continue to drive consumer and business uncertainty."

(page 2) 50 comments

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[–] [email protected] 42 points 2 days ago (1 children)

God this is bleak.

I'm not even in the US. This is a global recession.

"[Consumers] are not even going to the grocery store and paying more for vegetables because there's none available from Mexico, or going to Whole Foods, for example, and finding the big sections of fresh fruit are being shut down. They haven't really felt the full impact [yet], and they're already saying something isn't right," Bethune says.

It sounds like shit is going to get real, really quick. As in next week?

Trump isn't going to back down either - good or bad he always just doubles down. If Mexican producers stop selling to the US he's just going to go to war right?

As an aside, I had been wondering what the US gov is going to do with all that tariff revenue... but now it seems kinda clear that consumers will be buying a lot less stuff, so there will be less income tax revenue anyway.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 days ago (4 children)

Maybe that's the plan? Start a trade war that will inevitably lead to a real war? It sets a lot more precedent for the lean on all of the marshal law type powers he's chasing after.

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[–] [email protected] 33 points 2 days ago (12 children)

If they say 60% odds when it's obviously 100%, how does one go about making money on the spread?

[–] [email protected] 19 points 2 days ago (1 children)

The reason is that Trump can reverse the tariffs tomorrow. Or a court could freeze them if it rules trump acted illegally.

But it does seem that they might be doing some serious insider trading on the market's volatility. Its funny that until 2024 this was illegal. But the supreme court wanted this. So here we are.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 days ago

Even if he would reverse the tariffs, the rest of the world is tired of this shit! The US showed that they are no reliable partner and always 4 years away from a possible circus.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 days ago

In case you haven't seen it there has been blood all over the place for years

[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 days ago

Maybe I am stupid but I feel like things like this will be looked at as silly in the future because clearly we have already hit the recession. The only question that we have left at this point is if it will evolve into a full blown depression.

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