"The economics are likely to be grim," Marcus wrote on his Substack. "Sky high valuation of companies like OpenAI and Microsoft are largely based on the notion that LLMs will, with continued scaling, become artificial general intelligence."
"As I have always warned," he added, "that's just a fantasy."
this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2024
541 points (95.5% liked)
Technology
59357 readers
5222 users here now
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
Our Rules
- Follow the lemmy.world rules.
- Only tech related content.
- Be excellent to each another!
- Mod approved content bots can post up to 10 articles per day.
- Threads asking for personal tech support may be deleted.
- Politics threads may be removed.
- No memes allowed as posts, OK to post as comments.
- Only approved bots from the list below, to ask if your bot can be added please contact us.
- Check for duplicates before posting, duplicates may be removed
Approved Bots
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Microsoft shit is a mega corp... AI is based on their revenue lol
Even Zuckerberg admits that trying to scale LLMs larger doesn’t work because the energy and compute requirements go up exponentially. There must exist a different architecture that is more efficient, since the meat computers in our skulls are hella efficient in comparison.
Once we figure that architecture out though, it’s very likely we will be able to surpass biological efficiency like we have in many industries.
That's a bad analogy. We weren't able to surpass biological efficiency in industry sector because we figured out human anatomy and how to improve it. It's simply alternative ways to produce force like electricity and motors which had absolutely no relation to how muscles works.
I imagine it would be the same for computers, simply another, better method to achieve something but it's so uncertain that it's barely worth discussing about.
Of course! It’s not like animals have jet engines!
Human brains are merely the proof that such energy efficiencies are possible for intelligence. It’s likely we can match or go far beyond that, probably not by emulating biology directly. (Though we certainly may use it as inspiration while we figure out the underlying principles.)
With current stat prediction models?
I'm shocked I tell you
Because nobody could have possibly saw that coming. /s
is this where we get to explain again why its not really ai?
I have to do similar things when it comes to 'raytracing'. It meant one thing, and then a company comes along and calls something sorta similar the same thing, then everyone has these ideas of what it should be vs. what it actually is doing. Then later, a better version comes out that nearly matches the original term, but there's already a negative hype because it launched half baked and misnamed. Now they have to name the original thing something new new to market it because they destroyed the original name with a bad label and half baked product.
Nope, just where you divest your stocks like any other tech run.
He is writing about LLM mainly, and that is absolutely AI, it's just not strong AI or general AI (AGI).
You can't invent your own meaning for existing established terms.
LLMs are AI in the same way that the lane assist on my car is AI. Tech companies, however, very carefully and deliberately play up LLMs as being AGI or close to it. See for example toe convenient fear-mongering over the "risks" of AI, as though ChatGPT will become Skynet.
load more comments
(2 replies)
load more comments
(4 replies)
Great!! ....I don't what chatGPT to go anywhere, I use it every day and Google has become assss.
Apparently, there was only so much IP to steal
The tech priests of Mars were right; death to abominable intelligence.
That's a Space Grudgin'
Just put another number behind it. Luddites won't know the difference.
load more comments
(1 replies)
It'll implode but there are much larger elephants in the room - geopolitical dumbassery and the suddenly transient nature of the CHIPS Act are two biggies.
Third, high flying growth, blue sky darlings, they're flaky. In a downturn growth is worth 0 fucking dollars, throw that shit in a dumpster and rotate into staples. People can push off a phone upgrade or new TV and cut down on subscriptions, but they'll always need Pampers.
The thing propping up AI and semis is an arms race between those high flying tech companies, so this whole thing is even more prone to imploding than tech itself, since a ton of revenue comes from tech. Sensitive sector supported by an already sensitive sector. House of cards with NVDA sitting right at the tippy top. Apple, Facebook, those kinds of companies, when they start trimming back it's over.
But, it's one of those things that is anyone's guess. When you think it's not even possible for everything to still have steam one of the big guys like TSMC posts some really delightful earnings and it gets another second wind, for the 29th time.
Definitely a house of cards tho, and suddenly a lot more precarious because suddenly nobody knows how policy will affect the industry or the market as a whole
They say shipping is the bellwhether of the economy and there's a lot of truth to that. I think semis are now the bellwhether of growth. Sit back and watch the change in the wind
nvidia at least sells shovels, they already made some real profit unlike openai
True, but it's not a competition. When big tech tightens their belts NVDA starves to death
Edit: guess I forgot to point out the hyperbole. Nvidia obviously won't literally die
Death?
They got the IP my man, pipe down.
yep Knew ai should die some day.
Seems to me the rationale is flawed. Even if it isn't strong or general AI, LLM based AI has found a lot of uses. I also don't recognize the claimed ignorance among people working with it, about the limitations of current AI models.
Can you name some of those uses that you see lasting in the long term or even the medium term? Because while it has been used for a lot of things it seems to be pretty bad at the overwhelming majority of them.
load more comments
(3 replies)
while you may be right, one would think that the problem lies in the overestimated peception of the abilities of llms leading to misplaced investor confidence -- which in turn leads to a bubble ready to burst.
Yup. Investors have convinced themselves that this time AI development is going to grow exponentially. The breathless fantasies they’ve concocted for themselves require it. They’re going to be disappointed.
supermicro's accountants have just resigned 🤭
It's gonna crash like a self driving tesla. It's gonna fall apart like a cybertrukkk.
Ya AI was never going to be it. But I wouldn’t understate its impact even in its current stage. I think it’ll be a tool that will be incredibly useful for just about every industry
load more comments
(1 replies)