this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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No one is likely to be happy with the projected higher deficits laid out in a new analysis of Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s economic plans.

The analysis released Monday by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget suggests a Harris presidency could increase the national debt over 10 years by $3.5 trillion. That’s even though the vice president’s campaign insists her proposed investments in the middle class and housing would be fully offset by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Her campaign policy guide states that Harris is “committed to fiscal responsibility — making investments that will support our economy, while paying for them and reducing the deficit at the same time.”

The same analysis says former President Trump’s ideas could heap another $7.5 trillion onto the debt and possibly as much as $15.2 trillion. That’s even though he suggests growth would be so strong under his watch that no one would need to worry about deficits.

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[–] [email protected] 45 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

The last time a President ran a balanced budget was Clinton. He did so with the support of the House, by increasing taxes on the wealthy, energy consumption, and Social Security.

The only chance Harris would have at running a balanced budget would be if Democrats obtain control of the House.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

We don't need a balanced budget. The government is not a business.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 month ago

Foreign ownership of US debt is risky, and could lead to instability of the US Dollar.

As of April 2024, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($749.0 billion), the United Kingdom ($690.2 billion), Luxembourg ($373.5 billion), and Canada ($328.7 billion).

https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/

[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

New analysis suggests national debt could increase under Harris,

Oh no.

My life won't change.

but it would surge under Trump

OH NO!!!

My life won't change.

Guess my vote will be based on things like which one of them says they're going to be a dictator who will deport millions of people he calls vermin.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

You have nothing to worry about if you're not vermin. Have you checked recently?

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I'm not vermin yet, but I'm Jewish, my daughter is Jewish and queer and even my white, Christian wife is in trouble because she's a librarian. So basically we're all going to be the vermin sooner or later.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Oof, that mix is like almost asking for it. You should arm yourself. 😂

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I've armed myself with dual citizenship to the UK, which is where we'll be off to some time between November and January, depending on the outcome of the election.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Ah, not bad. Probably better than Canada in some regards.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I technically qualify for German citizenship, but it will be a big bureaucratic hurdle and one I would wait until I got to the UK to tackle.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Everything is a big bureaucratic hurdle in Germany. Hope you make it across to Europe though, it's much calmer if not completely chill over here.

Und außerdem, wie ist mit deinen Deutschsprachkenntnissen?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Und außerdem, wie ist mit deinen Deutschsprachkenntnissen?

I had to use Google Translate, if that tells you anything. So that would be another hurdle on top of the bureaucratic ones.

Here's the situation: my German grandfather married my English Grandmother in 1929 and emigrated to the UK the same year. My father was born in 1931. My grandfather did not officially renounce his German citizenship and become a British subject until 1936.

This would, in theory, make my father a German citizen (he would hate that so much) and my brother and I too.

Here is the really big problem in terms of bureaucracy: my grandfather was Jewish. He was officially listed as stateless on his naturalization papers because Germany no longer recognized him as a citizen for obvious reasons.

So yeah, if I fought hard for it, and I may one day, I could get German (and thus EU) citizenship. But it will take a lot of work.

That said, we fought hard for many years for ownership of an apartment building owned by my great-grandmother and seized by the Nazis that was in the former East Berlin. In 1989, we started lawyering up and I don't think it all got resolved for about 10 years. Then we had to sell it for a paltry amount of money because renovating it to comply with modern regulations would have been too expensive and there were price controls at the time. But we fought and won. Maybe I should do it again.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I get it, I got my family out of a country with a very similar "going to right-wing klepto-shitscape" trajectory right in the middle of COVID. Had to get my nose stuck every 3 days for a month. I worked sitting on the floor with my laptop on a cardboard box for 2 weeks, while all my furniture was said box and a mattress. Had to learn a fourth language while I was getting taken advantage by employers left and right.

No regrets, absolutely none. I don't know the US, but where I'm from didn't get better, it got so much worse I barely recognise it anymore.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 month ago (1 children)

“Could” doing some heavy “bOtH SidES!” lifting in that headline.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago

Yeah that headline is all sorts of manipulative. Are they counting on people stopping reading at the first comma?

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago

Bluntly, neither of them are willing to do the thing necessary to balance the budget, or decrease the national debt, which is raise taxes back to the level they were at before Nixon took office. There's not a quick and easy solution to any of this, but the top marginal tax rates are ridiculously low, and we've made is easy and cheap to outsource production.

When you're already spending less than the minimum needed to keep a country running effectively, you can't simply cut your way out of debt; you need to increase revenues, and that means taxation. The smartest taxes are progressive; they're taxes on wealth and on income, taxes that affect the poor and the rich proportionately, which is to say progressively. Flat taxes, sales taxes, etc., are inherently regressive, affecting the poor disproportionately, and are thus less effective at increasing tax revenues.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago

It is a wealth transfer, from the middle class to the wealthy

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago

Could and would have to dramatically different meaning. Media makes the sound on par.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

It's maybe worth pointing out that the analysis covers 10 years and appears to account for $0 in GDP growth (and corresponding tax base growth) dependent on those policies. If I'm reading this correctly (big if to be fair): Assuming the government continues to capture 17.5% of US GDP, Harris' policies would need to generate roughly 4% GDP growth per year (no small feat, granted) to be net zero relative to absolute debt levels and less than that to be net zero relative to debt as a percentage of GDP. Government expenditure is not like consumer spending because almost every dollar it spends looks less like consumption and more like an investment, and leveraging investments is actually a valid strategy, especially when you have the economic momentum/inertia of a nation state to balance the risks involved with debt, and that is before you even get into fiscal monetary policy