Hoffmann also pointed to another unwelcome side-effect of longer shipping routes: rising greenhouse gas emissions. "Ships have increased their speeds, which has led to a rise in emissions, for example, by 70% on the Singapore-Rotterdam route."
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this post was submitted on 10 Jul 2024
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Is it that time of the year already? How time flies...
And by that I mean the time of the year where they manufacture some bullshit reason for our prices to keep going up...
Good? Manufacturing should overtime move locally, and local business should boon.
But even local manufacturing needs supplies to manufacture. You can't mine cadmium locally if there's no cadmium to mine. Global shipping would still be necessary to maintain modern lifestyles. Local manufacturing might reduce global shipping in some cases, but there would still be a huge amount of it.
But then, for Europe, the sources would be Kazachstan, USA, and Africa. I would much rather have Kazachstan or Africa get money for it than China. And shipping raw rare earth metals should surely be less impacted than shipping full finished products that include cadmium (that take much more shipping volume).
Hell, maybe this will also push for more recycling of Cadmium (and other special metals) as the source becomes less reliable / more expensive.
I only see a problem for companies that try to milk every cent and are terrified of raising the price which will impact their profit margins and CEO bonuses.
For cadmium? Sure. But not for everything you need in every step of the manufacturing process. Cars don't go from steel to car in one factory. Bits are made in different places and those bits are assembled into other bits which get assembled into other bits and eventually the biggest bits gets assembled into a car.
Cars aren't like what they were when the Ford Model T was being cranked out. They're incredibly complex machines which can't be made in one local or regional factory anymore without a global supply chain. There's just too many things to manufacture.
I absolutely think there should be more local manufacturing, if for no other reason than to make the world less reliant on China, but if you're talking about generalizing that process, it will only ever be the final assembly stage. You're just not going to see a European computer company manufacture the dye that goes into the circuit boards that get printed with circuits which go into their computers. And that's just one small chain in a huge supply web.
I would be fine with cars being made more dumb. The chips cars need (to work, without half-assed shit infotainment systems) don't need to be manufactured by tsmc.
Computer chips are so expensive per volume, I feel they will not get impacted too much, but it would be nice to have fabs for it in Europe.
You might be fine with it, but the world is not. And you still seem to not be seeing the forest for the trees. This applies to virtually every modern convenience you are used to. None of them can be produced locally when you get down to the components.
I understand, I just don't see why it couldn't and shouldn't be produced more locally. Yes, there might be a huge impact for 5 years or more, but I perceive it as infrastructural debt and over-reliance.
Yes, it could be produced more locally but, as I said, there would still be massive global shipping issues and prices would still be a problem.
Also, five years is a hell of a long time for things to be massively more expensive. And you're not going to be able to build the hundreds of various factories you would need in five years.
Building something incredibly specialized like a computer chip fab or a nuclear plant (due to extremely hand-made nature and safety requirements) might take a decade, but for something as well understood and much more approachable as cars, 5 years for building a hangar and getting the required equipment is quite reasonable. One could even look at Tesla for how it does work.
Cars and computers are not the only things that need to be manufactured. I'm not sure why you seem to think this is just about one or two products and not every piece of technology that surrounds you right now.
It's much more approachable to talk about specific items, and to some degree we can extend this to everything, with more and more details
I disagree that cars are incredibly complex machines. They are certainly more complex than Ford Model T, but it is generally just iteratively sometimes useful bloat. When you say they are "incredibly complex" it usually means population's understanding of it is lacking. To the point where people are afraid to jump start a dead battery, because "it has this complex computer and stuff"
Okay, remove the word 'incredibly.' The point is they aren't just basic mechanical devices anymore. There are all kinds of things cars have now that likely would not be able to be manufactured locally or maybe even regionally, be they various sensors or power steering fluid or airbags- or the components needed to make those things.
The more you work with cars (or me specifically: motorcycles), the more you understand they are quite simple. The extra stuff added on top is usually just touted as an "incredible advancement", but really amounts to decades of strong marketing. In many ways, simple ingenious solutions these days are axed and replaced with even simpler mechanics and engineered electronics, just because the manufacturer can get away with it and hide it, for some extra money.
You're really missing my point here.
I am not missing it, I am saying, from my perspective, this idea of it being so complex it can only be manufactured somewhere in China, is wrong.
Hell, my engineer friends, given material, and their tools, could do it in 2 days by reading blueprints and latheing from scratch.
That was not my claim. So yes you are.
So what couldn't I manufacture in a fully equipped metal shop? Given materials.
So many things you could not imagine.
This isn't conceptual. A book was written by a man who tried to make a toaster from the very base components. It was in no way easy.
https://www.amazon.com/Toaster-Project-Attempt-Electric-Appliance/dp/B00ANYWFP6
Also, I am not going to talk to you in two different comment chains, so pick one.
That does look like an interesting read, but reading the abstract, he goes a bit fanatical, in that he tries to smelt the metal himself. The metal industry (and plastic) is alive and well in Europe, you can buy prepared metal, wires, microchips, buttons and other needed materials easily, down to plastic beads you can put in a mold (or more likely, just 3d print these days), given these, I don't see having a problem building a functional, albeit less aesthetically refined toaster in 2 days.
you can buy prepared metal, wires, microchips, buttons and other needed materials easily, down to plastic beads you can put in a mold (or more likely, just 3d print these days),
Do you think those appear out of thin air? Because that was my whole damn point. Those prepared items come from other parts of the world. You can't manufacture all of them in Europe and if you tried, it would take a hell of a lot more than five years and drive prices up ridiculously.
I'm not sure why you think I'm talking about final assembly when I've made it clear multiple times that I'm talking about all the steps before final assembly, many of which require global shipping.
Just because the cheapest come from somewhere beyond the sea, doesn't mean there aren't local equivalents. I just bought missing motorcycle parts that are manufactured in Poland, and I do prefer German, Polish manufacture, because it's inherently more reliable and doesn't have the added guess-work for Chinese manufacturing. And yes, Europe does manufacture microchips, buttons, wires, and other components that (among many things) make new nuclear plants work.
I can agree that some materials are only available in specific regions, and so global-ish shipping would never die (and doesn't need to), but over-reliance is a long time debt that should go away.
So your point essentially is that you don't care if things get hugely more expensive because you'll be fine. Got it.
There is a more fair price to pay for products, if you don't buy from china. Investing into local manufacturing makes sense. And people don't ask for fair wages, because people I talk to haven't had a raise in 10-20 years, even though inflation went crazy over the past 10 years.
I can agree that finances drive our choices, but it is a bit insane to say the only solution is to keep the global trade going and only buy from China. Surely it is possible to produce locally and pay people fair money (per European lifestyle) while not going bankrupt, otherwise, how does it even make sense to assume China (and other Asian countries) will just keep producing items for cheap?
Does it make sense for those five years you were talking about where everything is super expensive? Because that sounds like quite the position of privilege.
It also sounds like a very privileged position blaming the lack of fair wages on the workers not asking for them.
How is it a position of privilege? It would mean that manufacturing in Europe would gain a lot of income, provide more lower skill jobs in Europe, consolidate the economy. Reduced shippings costs would directly go into the European economy.
I would like there to be more unions, otherwise large companies even in Europe are too powerful and too dehumanizing. If you don't talk about this, it will only get worse.
Buying hand-made clothes from individual artisans is actually cheaper in Europe than well-known brands, but it sadly requires more research and time for searching.
The imagination that prices would skyrocket is naive, I think. Yes, there could be a period of high prices, and people would buy less, and more focused on what we need (in the specific case of extreme import cut-off), but the import tax is already around 20%, if it was manufactured in Europe, that is already going directly into the profit margins.
You blamed workers not asking for raises for their pay being low. That's privilege in a nutshell.
I am sure when you go to work and don't get a raise for 10 years, you would think twice of the importance of worker unions in large companies.
Your words:
And people don’t ask for fair wages, because people I talk to haven’t had a raise in 10-20 years, even though inflation went crazy over the past 10 years.
You said nothing about unions at all.
And people shouldn't have to join a union or ask to get paid fairly. Again, a privileged idea that takes corporations off the hook.
People definitely should ask to be paid fairly. What is the point otherwise? To roll over and get fucked by any company willing to accept your skillset to make them insane amounts of money?
What the fuck.
Wow. You're still making it their job to ask and not up to the company to pay the fair wage and you don't even realize how pro-corporate that is.
What the fuck. I keep saying I hate large companies, and they are literally abusing people by not raising peoples' wages over 10 year time-frames.
I would be fine joining a petition forcing companies to at least go inline with inflation with their wages, but you did not propose it, you are just trying to be angry at something I didn't say.
It's just, if you talk about finances driving your decisions, you must talk about fair wages and the current state of things. Otherwise you're ignoring the full picture.
I blame large companies much more than I blame people not doing unions, but unions is the only possibility for people to fight back long-term abuse for a job they either perceive as acceptable, or not changeable (for whatever reason).
There is plenty of institutional knowledge about ICE available in Europe, albeit at a premium price, because people buy more than repair old, out of only financial concerns (and money going somewhere else and not into peoples' hands). All of it seems a little bit simpler (even though made incredibly difficult due to companies' approach to reliability, repair, and marketing of "this is incredibly complex, don't touch") after you have a engineering or STEM degree of some sort.
People also do this all the time for one-off, functional prototype/exhibition items. Of course it's expensive to manufacture one due to the handmade nature and research time, but once you make one, you can refine the process, and/or build the mass-manufacture molds.
And you will pay a lot more for literally everything and some products will be either unavailable or with much lower quality. This will also drive inflation to new highs affecting the consumer purchasing power.
I can only assume you are an American, and I am sorry to disappoint you but you don't have neither the manufacturing power, nor the workforce to handle all the manufacturing that is happening overseas anymore. Even if you want to switch to local manufacturing there would be decades until you build the know how build and equip the factories and to train the workforce.
Where do you think your TV or phone or microwave, vacuum cleaner, dishwasher, etc. are produced?
Not to mention that this will also affect your GDP in a negative way, as you will stop being able to export locally produced goods, because of those protectionist policies.
But yes, let's do this /S
Nice edit. I keep talking about European climate from a European perspective.
Importing less directly increases GDP. One would assume it would have 0 impact on exports, unless other governments suddenly are bitchy and angry that they cannot export to us (see: China).
I am sorry but are you an economist or an engineer. The Chinese market is one of the most important for a lot of European companies.
And it is kind of naïve to believe that protectionism would benefit the general population. Look how great North Korea or Cuba are doing.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The offshoot conflict in the Red Sea has meant higher freight costs and increased expenses for insuring commercial trade goods.
Moreover, moves to avoid the Suez Canal for safety reasons and instead navigate around the Cape of Good Hope, have greatly increased travel times and led to significantly higher fuel consumption.
Simon MacAdam, an analyst at the London-based financial consulting firm Capital Economics, says shipping companies are being forced to become more flexible.
"The shipowners have seemingly adapted quite well to the situation, considering the limitations on using the Suez Canal," he told DW, adding that costs briefly dropped this spring "after skyrocketing in January."
Shipping bulk commodities like wheat or liquefied natural gas (LNG) across the US is economically unviable, he added, leaving shippers with no alternative to the very long and dangerous detour route around Cape Horn on the southern tip of South America.
Water levels in the canal, he told DW, have "recovered somewhat" in recent months, and the La Nina weather phenomenon should "further ease the situation soon."
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Cost of doing Genocide baby.
Based Houthi's standing up for what's right.