this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2024

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-2

Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Finds (archive.is)

submitted 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

13 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Shit’s completely fucked. It’s time to stop denying the fucking obvious and change horses before we careen off a fucking cliff. I’m voting for whoever the d is, but I cannot see how Biden wins without some black swan. He’s not worth the risk.

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey.

USA has done phenomenally well on the economy lately, that used to count for something, but apparently not so much anymore.
A lot of Americans are planning to vote for the ills of USA to get worse for some reason. They complain average people are not doing well, and then they plan to vote for the guy who is all in for the 1% over everything else? The guy who will gladly dismantle every shred of workers rights, from the party who is absolutely fine with full time work that doesn't even earn a living wage! Who will do absolutely nothing to make things better for working people, but everything he can to cut taxes for the rich.

Is it time to sell if you have American stock?
It seems to me to be pretty risky now. Could this end in a civil war over there?

Ah well USA will get the government they elect, maybe a 2nd term with Trump will make some people wake up. But I doubt it, just look at WW2 Germany, the Nazi regime had to be toppled from outside, but there is nobody to do that with USA.

So if Trump wins, I will not be surprised if we get decades of fascist dictatorship in USA.
If things are not looking better when we reach August, I will sell my American stock, and I think everybody who doesn't is naive in thinking a new term with Trump will end well.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sinclair-lewis-on-fascism/

when fascism comes to America it will be "wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I actually agree that Biden's performance was a big problem. Also, the polls are feckin useless, but seeing the relative change that happened because of some event is actually like the one thing they can do pretty well. If you remember the middle school science chart of accuracy vs. precision, they have dogshit accuracy which was off by an average of 16 percentage points when I investigated it for some recent elections, but against all odds they actually are precise.

So, that said: Here's an overview of recent polling.

Trump's polls really did drop by quite a few points after he was convicted. The same outlets freaking the fuck out over Biden's YouGov polling dropping from 42/42 to now 40/42, didn't say a goddamned word about Trump's "debacle" of being convicted of etc etc when his polls dropped by more than that; in fact they wrote the exact opposite story.
The massive tanking of support which was predicted did not materialize. IDK what's up with this NYT poll, but what the fuck, just look at the other ones. He dropped a couple percentage points. It's not real good but it's actually a lot less than I expected given how bad the debate was.
All the other Democratic possibilities are worse. The issue actually isn't Biden. The issue is that the news misrepresents reality so aggressively and mendaciously that people can't figure out whether it's a better idea to take home a cat that's got some health problems, or a rabid dog. That's the root of the whole "Michelle Obama" story -- I think they were looking desperately for some story to write that wasn't "but Biden is still better than every other alternative except Kamala Harris who he's 2 points behind, and we can't write about her being good because she's a realistic replacement and writing good things about her might actually create good things for the Democrats and I'll get in trouble with my boss."

I am beginning to share Trump's hatred for the media

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

Re trumps numbers after conviction, I think the conviction was a forgone conclusion for most people. Having 12 people confirm what you already know is true doesn't make someone flip their vote.

If the trial had been televised with Trump asleep in court, I think you would have seen a bugger drop but it would have preceded the actual conviction.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I cannot see how Biden wins without some black swan.

Is that swan named "Kamala", by any chance?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

Kamala is an uncharismatic former prosecutor who is where she is because she was Hillary's protégé. She is an absolutely awful pick for a replacement.

I have people I prefer a lot better, but I'd still take Whitmer or Buttigieg over Harris.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Cool. Another poll. Does anyone take this shit seriously?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

You better. There are a lot of issues with trying to run an accurate poll in this modern day - but a big dip in the polls is still a concerning sign.

It helps no one to bury their heads in the sand.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

Polls are horseshit and only useful for trills and propagandists to “validate” their bullshit. I could poll everyone I k ow that’s voting for Biden and show you that he is favored 100%.

Anyone can make a poll validate anything they want.

Vote like polls don’t exist.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

That would be a really shit poll though, your methodology would be "I found people who I knew would answer the question this way" and everyone would see. If there is a methodological issue with this poll that isn't hand-waving I'd be interested to hear it.

E.g. "but who answers the phone anymore?" They know this issue and use a bunch of complicated statistical shit to adjust for it or just improve the methodology. The people making these polls actually tend to know what they're doing.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

I think that's partially true, and you're welcome to ignore the politics up until election day. America absolutely suffers from the obscenely long campaigns for president - but a lot of people are engaged in the constant 24/7 media churn and those people were pretty clearly unimpressed with Biden's performance.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

A useless poll? Following the other useless polls?

Relevant.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I feel like the only way to get out of this mess is if we have like a George Clooney / Oprah Winfrey ticket.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

Too bad Taylor Swift is just a few months too young to be eligible.