this post was submitted on 07 Dec 2023
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Fermi Paradox. Are there aliens? Of course. Are they in our current time and local space? Probably not. It's it fun to think about? Yes, that's why science fiction exists.
More importantly, are they a lifeforms that we would even recognize as alive? The chances of an alien being humanoid are even slimmer. Then there's whether they develop intelligence, whether they care about space, and whether they survive long enough to get anywhere.
If intelligent life exists anywhere else the biggest chance we have of finding anything would be a self sustaining vehicle sent off into space by them at some point. The chances of us being alive at the same time in close enough proximity to encounter each other is almost zero.
If a vessel could wander space endlessly we have a slightly bigger (but still almost zero) chance of encountering it.
The Old "will the Screensaver hit the corner" method
Nono I said ALMOST zero
This was one of the only cool parts of the film Oblivion. Basically if an intelligence can cross that distance to us it would likely be a digital intelligence. That and if you want to fuck humanity without touching them, crack the moon.
Counterpoint, why do dolphins and sharks look so alike when they have a completely different phylogenetic tree? They separately developed traits that were very well suited to the medium of water. Convergent evolution means that it isn't entirely unlikely that whatever we may find has similar traits to beings on earth, because we all exist in a universe of solids, liquids, and gasses.
Counter-counterpoint: both species come from the same tree of life, several of their traits taken for granted come from previous species' adaptation, e.g. bilateral symmetry. When you see, say, a molusk with the same bodyplan as a shark, we can talk about it being a common possibility.
What about the whole crabification thing?
While carcinisation does exist as a phenomenon, I believe all examples involve animals of the same order, i.e. it's even less extreme than comparing a shark and a dolphin.
Ah fair enough.
It's a fair point, but I guess we would recognise them, especially if carbon-based.
Think of another issue. We evolved in 6 million years. Assuming it takes 4 billion for the planet to form and organisms to form, that means there's 8 bln years where civ can start. What's the chance that they are at a similar tech level as us? Really small.
Do you stop to talk to an ant on a field trip?