this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2023
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Take CPUs for example, ARM CPUs where kind of a joke 20 years ago, but now they are taking over X86. So its actually not bad working on competing technologies. Even about cars there is an example like that, also maybe 20 years ago battery cars where kind of a joke, while hydrogen fuelcells where all the hype back in the day. While now it seems battery is definitely winning. Although maybe in the next 20 years this turned out to be completely wrong again.
There may be an ARM "takeover" of x86 at some point, but that day is very much not today unless you believe the PC market consists solely of Macs.
The hydrogen issue seems to continue being storage. Even if you have all the green electricity you want for electrolysis, the product cannot just go in a tank at anywhere near sea-level pressure and temperature.
I'd argue that overwhelming majority of people in the world use their phone as their primary computing device. ARM took over years ago.
The PC market is shrinking. More and more of our general computing needs are being met by ARM based tablets, phones etc.
With all Macs now using ARM CPUs, Microsoft and Qualcomm making a very real ARM push and cloud compute companies pursuing ARM servers. Long term ARM dominance is looking more and more likely.