I think to the "early adopter" crowd, the people like me who where huffing Nintendo "NX" leaks back in 2016, the more "core" audience of people from the ages of late teens to however old James Rolfe is now.

Those people will probably buy a steam deck before a switch 2. There are a lot of them.

Though not as many people as there are like my ex-sister-in-law and her new bf who put together have four kids. The Linux PC I built them to make sure their kids had a good puter is enough trouble, even with me to help. I don't see them even considering them for their kids.

That being said I also think many of those people will stick to their current console until they release a cost reduced "switch 2 lite".

Buying a new $450 console for every kids plus $80 games is fucking brutal and most parents won't put up with that shit when a used switch lite is like $100-150.

I see this hitting their initial sales a lot more than their sales over the new consoles life span, especially as people who chose steam deck, and the parents who waited, slowly grab a switch 2 during sales/price drops.