this post was submitted on 27 Mar 2025
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Gee I wonder why the stock market just plunged again
Did it? I really can't wrap my head around trying to reconcile what the people who know about this stuff say and what the numbers on page seem to say. I'm just not smart enough. I know I'm not the brightest bulb in the box, but I've been trying to figure out the real impact of all this on the market and it honestly seems to be really minimal. Yes, it's trending down and recession seems likely and a couple days had really big drops this month - but it's nowhere near even its average, never mind its lows from the past 2 or 3 year periods. Just 3 years ago the market was at like 28,000 points. It doubled in 3 years and now that its shrinking a bit, that is a crisis? What do I not get?
This isn't so much the market "plummeting" as it looks like to me a massive bubble bursting that was based on nothing to begin with.
But then, I'm the guy who thinks "The Big Short" was a smart movie. I'll freely admit I'm a fucking moron who knows nothing about finance.
So I may have misspoke, and, I am also not smart enough to understand all of this, but I do understand one thing. Investments that track the stock market are supposed to grow. Usually about 7% a year. I invested in index funds back in september, at one point I saw it up by ~5% but now my balance is back down to ~2% from initial investment. At this point I would expect to reasonably be between those numbers. Given the instability we keep seeing, I'm not expecting nearly the ~7% growth per year that is normally a rule of thumb :'(
Ah ha - I see, we're talked over each other a bit but I think I get it now. You have to adjust for the assumed 7% in growth that would be considered "standard". We're not really at -2%, because we should be aiming for +7% at minimum. Which means the short fall is more than 4 times what it appears to be to my layman ass. I think I get it.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/28/investing/us-stocks-tariff-uncertainty-volatility/index.html
Right yeah basically. From September we probably ought to be at a 3% - 4% gain but I'm personally down to a 2% gain. At one point it was down to like 1%. It's super easy for me to check because I invested a multiple of 10 and haven't touched it since.
What's really concerning is the speed of loss. It's hot garbage.