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The Russia has not been gaining ground after early 2022. During the year 2024 they gained more ground than anybody in the west expected, because USA stopped its weapon deliveries for 6 months in the end of June 2024.
When the Russia gained ground exceptionally fast, it gained 0.7 % of Ukraine's total territory in that one year. Less than a percent. Okay, technically that is indeed gaining ground, but in the big picture of the war that's an irrelevant amount. If the Russia manages to gain 5 % of Ukraine's territory in 12 months, it's okay to say they are gaining ground. But with the speed they are "advancing" now... Heh.
The Russia gaining ground at a speed of 0.7 % of Ukraine's territory and losing 400 000 soldiers as dead and wounded per year in the process is indeed part of some grand plan of Ukraine's. The Russia won't run out of people with that pace for another 250 years or so, but it will run out of soldiers, because it is losing them faster than it's able to recruit new ones.
You see, we agree Ukraine will run out of soldiers soon.
Stop being so obtuse, Yuri :)
Why would it? Finland has a total army strength of quite precisely one million if you count in the reserve.
Ukraine has fielded about that many soldiers altogether, perhaps a little less.
Finland has a population of 5.6 million, Ukraine has a population of 40 million. Per capita they have about one seventh of the amount of soldiers compared to Finland. Meaning, they should be, by all logic, able to find another seven times as many soldiers as they have found now. It's weird that the do not!
While Ukrainians' will to go to front is far greater than that of Germans' or the French, the size of Ukraine's army tells of a big problem with motivation. It is super weird, but even under the current circumstances, most Ukrainians don't bother joining to help protect their country. (And because they don't, the current soldiers almost never get relieved for holidays, and that's a reason why people don't want to join the army...)
That is a self-correcting problem. If it happens that Ukraine runs out of soldiers so badly that the Russia will start advancing at a speed of five percent of Ukraine's total territory per year instead of the current 0.7 %, then Ukrainians will get scared and more people will be motivated to move their butts. And then there are enough soldiers again.
The Russia does not have such a self-correcting mechanism with its army size. Actually the opposite: While Ukraine doing badly will motivate more Ukrainians to come for help, the Russia doing badly means their economy is doing badly, and therefore their ability to pay good salaries for their soldiers will be doing badly. Their soldiers are in it for the money. No money --> extremely difficult to find enough Russian soldiers.
You’re being overly optimistic. Ukrainians are already tired of the war effort and as you said many of them aren’t interested in joining the war in the front lines.
Russia advancing faster will only make more people want to stop the massacre, or more people flee abroad.
Of course they want to stop the massacre. Like I said: if the Russia gets too close to winning, and therefore dramatically increasing the scale of the massacre, more people will join to help at the front. You know, it's almost as if people didn't want to die?!
That’s right, people don’t want to die, so it’s not likely they will join the front when the chances of dying are even higher than they are today.
They are Ukrainians. The Russia will do in all of Ukraine what it has been doing in the occupied areas. A Ukrainian has thus a far higher chance to die if he ends up under Russian occupation than if he tries to stop the Russia from occupying his country.
For Ukrainians it's a no-brainer. "If my country will probably stay independent without my help, I will do nothing. But if it looks like my country might lose its independence, of course I want to decrease my risk of dying, so I will go to the front to defend this country."
There are terror attacks against Ukrainian civilians every day. They are still torturing people who are not pro-Putin enough, like they have been doing for 11 years already. All of Ukraine will be one big Mariupol/Bucha/Kherson/Irpin, if the Russia manages to take over it. Why would anybody choose that?
No, a Ukrainian does not have far higher chances to die if he ends up under Russian occupation compared to if he tried to stop the Russian from occupying his country. It is obviously a lot more dangerous to fight on the front lines than just live life under occupation.
It's not life but death, though. What's so difficult to understand about the word "genocide"?
Is there a genocide in Crimea and the Western Ukrainians regions under Russian control?
Yes? WTF is this question of yours supposed to mean?
Can you show me? How many Ukrainians have been killed in Crimea last year? How many have been killed in the Eastern regions controlled by the Russians?
I’m not talking about the fights in the front line.
Here's something that was among the first search results when searching for Russia Kherson torture: https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/04/13/ukraine-russian-torture-center-kherson
And then of course you can just read Putin's texts and texts published by the government's news agency RIA, telling that Ukrainians are not really human and they should not exist. He's told several times, first in 2021, that the existence of Ukrainians is a problem that needs to be corrected. And right in the last few days now in March 2025 he has been reiterating that there can be a ceasefire negotiations only if Ukraine first demilitarizes, which shows that if Putin doesn't manage to conquer all of Ukraine, he sees the war as an utter defeat. His goal is to remove the nation of Ukrainians from the face of this planet, and he is not going to settle with anything less.
Yes, of course at the moment the genocide is somewhat dormant, because the Russia needs to concentrate on other efforts. But what happened in Bucha and Irpin and other Russia-occupied territories in early 2022 is what will happen elsewhere in full scale (and is happening in a smaller scale already now) if the Russia manages to completely take over Ukraine. Ukrainians understand this, and that's why the country is ready to fight until the last man standing, if that must be. Still a better death.
Now I'll need to go sleeping (already two hours ago, heh), but do search for "russian media monitor" genocide on Youtube. Here's one video that I found very quickly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEDMbF-F4lo . This is from the main channel of the national television in the Russia.
This article was one of the most clearly articulated I've read in the Russian media: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_Russia_Should_Do_with_Ukraine . They used to write a lot about this in early 2022, because they thought they would start with it soon full scale and need to prepare the Russian people for removing the Ukrainians. The main point of the article was that in one part it said that all nazis in Ukraine should be killed, and in another part of the same article it was said that anybody who supports the Ukrainian regime is a nazi. And here's about Putin's speech from three days before the war turned into a full-scale invasion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Address_concerning_the_events_in_Ukraine (And since the full-scale invasion was supposed to happen on 22.02.2022, it was supposed to be on the day before.)
After 2022, there have been constant references to the same idea, but Putin has retained the main thought that it is imperative for the Russia to get rid of the concept of Ukrainians existing.
Thank you for sharing, I will read these this week.