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The Russia has not been gaining ground after early 2022. During the year 2024 they gained more ground than anybody in the west expected, because USA stopped its weapon deliveries for 6 months in the end of June 2024.
When the Russia gained ground exceptionally fast, it gained 0.7 % of Ukraine's total territory in that one year. Less than a percent. Okay, technically that is indeed gaining ground, but in the big picture of the war that's an irrelevant amount. If the Russia manages to gain 5 % of Ukraine's territory in 12 months, it's okay to say they are gaining ground. But with the speed they are "advancing" now... Heh.
The Russia gaining ground at a speed of 0.7 % of Ukraine's territory and losing 400 000 soldiers as dead and wounded per year in the process is indeed part of some grand plan of Ukraine's. The Russia won't run out of people with that pace for another 250 years or so, but it will run out of soldiers, because it is losing them faster than it's able to recruit new ones.
You see, we agree Ukraine will run out of soldiers soon.
Stop being so obtuse, Yuri :)
Why would it? Finland has a total army strength of quite precisely one million if you count in the reserve.
Ukraine has fielded about that many soldiers altogether, perhaps a little less.
Finland has a population of 5.6 million, Ukraine has a population of 40 million. Per capita they have about one seventh of the amount of soldiers compared to Finland. Meaning, they should be, by all logic, able to find another seven times as many soldiers as they have found now. It's weird that the do not!
While Ukrainians' will to go to front is far greater than that of Germans' or the French, the size of Ukraine's army tells of a big problem with motivation. It is super weird, but even under the current circumstances, most Ukrainians don't bother joining to help protect their country. (And because they don't, the current soldiers almost never get relieved for holidays, and that's a reason why people don't want to join the army...)
That is a self-correcting problem. If it happens that Ukraine runs out of soldiers so badly that the Russia will start advancing at a speed of five percent of Ukraine's total territory per year instead of the current 0.7 %, then Ukrainians will get scared and more people will be motivated to move their butts. And then there are enough soldiers again.
The Russia does not have such a self-correcting mechanism with its army size. Actually the opposite: While Ukraine doing badly will motivate more Ukrainians to come for help, the Russia doing badly means their economy is doing badly, and therefore their ability to pay good salaries for their soldiers will be doing badly. Their soldiers are in it for the money. No money --> extremely difficult to find enough Russian soldiers.
You’re being overly optimistic. Ukrainians are already tired of the war effort and as you said many of them aren’t interested in joining the war in the front lines.
Russia advancing faster will only make more people want to stop the massacre, or more people flee abroad.
Of course they want to stop the massacre. Like I said: if the Russia gets too close to winning, and therefore dramatically increasing the scale of the massacre, more people will join to help at the front. You know, it's almost as if people didn't want to die?!
That’s right, people don’t want to die, so it’s not likely they will join the front when the chances of dying are even higher than they are today.