this post was submitted on 13 Mar 2025
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The Portuguese Air Force is no longer expected to acquire the 5th generation F-35 fighter from Lockheed Martin, all due to the review of the US position towards NATO.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

Do they get more planes for their buck now?

[–] [email protected] 20 points 18 hours ago (4 children)

Disclaimer in that I am not in any way an expert on military procurement: it depends on what they buy.

There are three European planes that can do similar roles: the Typhoon (Anglo-German-Italian), the Rafale (French), and the Gripen (Swedish). According to this RUSI article, it looks like the Typhoon is probably actually more expensive per plane. The Typhoon was also, unlike the other two and the F-35, designed to be a pure air superiority fighter, so it's more of an F-22 competitor than an F-35 one. Probably not what Portugal is looking for. That RUSI article has the Rafale as being a bit more expensive than the F-35 and the Gripen being a bit cheaper than it. However, the source for the F-35's number is the flyaway cost for the Americans, who did ordered it in huge numbers and also did most (not all, but most) of the development and I would assume get a better deal than others. Further, it's in an article headlined "F-35’s price might rise, Lockheed warns". So I'm just going to hedge my bets and say:

  • If they buy the Typhoon, definitely no, but the Typhoon probably isn't the right fit anyway
  • If they buy the Rafale, somewhere around the same, and it'll still be extremely capable
  • If they buy the Gripen, yes, and it'll still be very good but not quite individually capable as the other options
[–] [email protected] 16 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (1 children)

That's all well and good, but you're also missing a critical point.

The European Union is very likely to introduce a bill that will massively subsidize purchases of local (EU) military equipment. This will make all EU alternatives much, much more attractive than F-35s.

This is a great move by the EU - it drives a lot of military spending away from the US and into the local economies, while shoring up its own security as well as preventing being at the hands of a fickle fascist for maintenance and upgrades.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 5 hours ago

Which in turn will probably also help with economies of scale, making the ex-subsidy cost of that equipment go down.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 12 hours ago

For once, our (Croatian) government lucked into making a good choice when they went with Rafales instead of F-16Vs.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 16 hours ago

A last point to consider is that the rafale is cheaper to operate than the F-35

[–] [email protected] 3 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

What's your opinion on Tejas (Yes, I know it's not European)

[–] [email protected] 7 points 13 hours ago

Uhh, don't expect any special insights here

It looks to me like it's pretty impressive considering that it's the second combat plane ever built in the country, and the experience gained from that is a valuable thing.

I have to assume that it's less capable and less expensive than the four that I mentioned, based on how it has fared as an export. It seems to have struggled against the European, American, and Chinese offerings, or in many cases have been considered as a trainer by countries that are already flying one of those previously-mentioned ones. Obviously there's a lot of politics involved in these purchases, but if Australia has already bought F-35s and wants Tejases as trainers then it suggests that Australia has a good reason to think that Tejas is a lot less expensive and also less effective at actually fighting a war

It seems like it suits its role well, though - a cost-effective solution for India's needs, and a way to develop domestic expertise