Russia spent a year building out sophisticated multi layer defences and training up 300k new recruits because it was obvious to everyone with a brain that the west would push Ukraine into an offensive to show progress. This is precisely what happened this summer, and all that preparation that Russia did paid off massively with Russia having gained more ground over the course of the summer than Ukraine.

The original plan that was sold in the west was that Ukraine would do a rapid blitzkrieg to the sea of Azov. Then it got scaled down to reaching Tokmak, and in reality it ended up being a handful of villages in the security zone failing to even reach the first line of the actual defences. One of the biggest achievements of the offensive was the capture of Piatykhatky which literally translates to five huts.

The west cobbled together all the available stockpiles of weapons and ammunition that it had for this offensive that's now sitting in massive graveyards of tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles around the frontline. Western countries openly say that they've run out of existing stocks of weapons to send, and do not have the industrial capacity to produce more in the near future. Meanwhile, Russian industrial activity is growing at the fastest pace in six years.

Russia is already going on an offensive all across the front, and will likely capture Avdiivka in the near future which will be a debacle comparable to Bakhmut for Ukraine.