this post was submitted on 19 Dec 2024
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Hmm.. If you say 8% of people carry guns, then surely there's a much higher than 9% chance that someone will have a gun at the scene. So something seems a bit off there.
I'd suggest that instead of just imagining how the percentage of people carrying guns might effect these stats, it might be better to try to measure that effect by looking at similar stats for other countries where gun carrying is far less common.
Idk sounds about right to me, 8%-8%. What do you expect, 8% of people carry so 50% of people have a gun on them at any given time? No, more like 8% of people have one at any given time, therefore 8% chance. Your figures seem off to me considering there are none, "nuh uh" isn't a rebuttal.
Yes I'd imagine in other countries where no bystanders have guns shootings and stabbings are stopped less by bystanders with guns, because they don't have them. We can see this play out in cases like the one in the UK where the shooter was stopped with a mammoth tusk ripped from a nearby museum. Frankly this seems to support my hypothesis that you have to have a gun to be able to use a gun.
I'm saying that if 8% of people carry guns and there are 20 such people at a particular location, then the probability that someone in the group has a gun would be
1-(1-0.08)^20
which is around 80%. For 1 person, it's 8%, for 2 people it's 15%, and so on.But whatever. I can see you are firmly in the camp of 'we need good people with guns to stop bad people with guns' - a view that basically only exists where gun-violence is endemic.
Well unfortunately, there's already 600,000,000 with no registry to know where, so those are staying. That puts your options at either protect yourself should you ever have to (hopefully, and likely, you never will) or don't and just hope it all works out. Sure, in countries where there already aren't guns I'm not saying they should get more, but they're here to stay.
And I know that if I were in a mass shooting and had to try and stop the shooter, I'd rather have one than not, idk about you.