this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2024
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The same shit happens in systems with more than two parties. You also have the problem to think about rallying behind the main party on the left or right side vs. one that is closer to your ideals but probably wont become part of the government coalition. In Germany, where i am from, we had 12 out of 16 years under Merkel with a "big coalition" of the conservative CDU and the social democrat SPD. All that happened was the SPD moving more and more to the right. Now we had a coalition that was supposedly progressive but collapsed hard as well as the Green party and liberal party FDP also moving strongly to the right. We now in 2024 have policies among the supposed center/center-left that used to be fringe far right by German standards. This is why voting "tactically" or for "the lesser evil" fails. It gives a false sense of what is demanded by the people.
Also for the narrative control just take the win of Biden in 2020 as a counter example. Despite Trump holding office the Dems managed to win.
I'm also from Germany and I don't think it's a similar situation at all. In our system, it's absolutely possible and doable for a new party to arise and gain influence. You don't have to vote for the lesser evil, you can find a party that actually suits you and there is a realistic shot of getting it elected if enough people want it to happen. We've gotten 2 new parties in parliament over the last decade (I don't like either of them, but that's beside the point). And yes, we have a general shift to the right in Germany as well, but that's more due to the actual attitudes of the population, a generally weak left and things like Russian influence. Contrary to the US, voters can absolutely reverse that trend though.
In a system like the US, that's almost impossible. Let's say the democrats split up into left-wing democrats and right-wing democrats. Half of the voter base goes to either party, so 25% of the population votes for each. However, elections are "first past the post", so even if the left gained a lot of voters and reached, say, 35%, it will be a total victory for the Republican party. Any party that can't get an absolute majority of votes is powerless. The momentum for a new party to get to power would have to be insane.
Well, yes, but pretty much exclusively by running on a lesser evil "We're not Trump" platform. Had the Trump presidency never happened, it could have been way more about actual policy.